At 2:46 PM -0500 2/17/97, Rick McAdoo wrote:
> Here is the current status (Max Pts is the amount each team could get by
> winning all their remaining games):
> Max Pts
> GP W-L-T Pts Pts Rem Remaining Games
> ===========================================
> 1 New Hampshire 21 17-4-0 34 40 6 @Me, Prov, @BU
> 2 Boston University 20 14-2-4 32 40 8 @Me(2), Merr, UNH
> 3 Maine 20 12-7-1 25 33 8 UNH, BU(2), UMA
>
> 4 Providence 21 10-10-1 21 27 6 UML, @UML, @UNH
> 5 Merrimack 20 9-10-1 19 27 8 @NU, NU, @BU, BC
> Mass Lowell 21 9-11-1 19 25 6 @Prov, Prov, @NU
> 7 Boston College 21 7-11-3 17 23 6 @UMA, NU, @Merr
>
> 8 Mass Amherst 22 7-15-0 14 18 4 BC, @Me
> 9 Northeastern 20 2-17-1 5 13 8 Merr, @Merr, @BC, UML
I added another column, "Pts Rem", for points remaining that that team can
gain.
> UNH and BU are locks for the top two positions; 1st place to be determined.
> Maine is ineligible and probably third. Assuming Maine beats
> UMass-Amherst, UMA will finish 8th, and Northeastern will finish 9th. The
> other four teams (Providence, UMass-Lowell, Merrimack, and BC) are jammed
> close together in the middle. Two will get home ice, and host the
> remaining two teams; who plays who will be determined by the remaining
> league games.
>
> Providence and UMass-Lowell play this weekend; if either sweeps, they will
> get home ice due to head-to-head tiebreakers. Merrimack can get home ice
> by winning 3 of 4; maybe just 2 of 4 depending on other results. BC
> probably needs to win all 3 of their games and get help from NU, BU, and
> UNH to get home ice.
Here's another way to look at it: magic numbers. I am defining the magic
number as the number of points a team needs to gain or have others lose.
So if a magic number is 6, that team needs any combination of 6 pts gained
by them or lost by their opponent. A head to head matchup is then worth
four points towards the magic number (if you win, you get two and they lose
two).
This factors in the tiebreakers that have already been decided.
DISCLAIMER: I tried to figure this all out on my own, so please correct me
if necessary, but let's not get into things like three or more team
tiebreakers yet. :-)
Magic numbers for:
* UNH to finish ahead of BU: 7 (pts rem: 6)
* BU to finish ahead of Maine: 2 (8)
* Maine to finish ahead of PC: 7 (8)
* Maine to finish ahead of Merrimack: 3 (8)
* PC to finish ahead of Merrimack: 6 (6)
* PC to finish ahead of Lowell: 4 (6)
* PC to finish ahead of BC: 3 (6)
* Merrimack to finish ahead of Lowell: 6 (8)
* Merrimack to finish ahead of BC: 4 (8)
* Lowell to finish ahead of BC: 4 (6)
* BC to finish ahead of UMass: 1 (6)
Thus for example, UNH does not "control its own destiny." UNH could win
all of its last three games and still wind up with only six points, but
their magic number vs BU is 7. But BU could win all of its last four games
and finish first.
Or rather, get the top seed, since officially if two teams tie in points,
they both may lay claim to having finished in that spot.
BU can therefore finish first by gaining two more points than UNH does the
rest of the way.
Besides UNH-BU for first, the other big battle is for home ice. (Maine can
still finish 2nd, and PC and Merrimack can still finish 3rd, for example,
but we won't get into that here - in all those cases, the teams need a lot
of help.)
As Rick says, this is down to four teams: PC, Merrimack, Lowell, and BC.
Since two of the teams have to host, you have to beat out two of the other
three teams to get home ice. Here is what the teams have to do:
* PC (6 possible points remaining)
* Magic number vs Merrimack: 6
* Magic number vs Lowell: 4
* Magic number vs BC: 3
* Merrimack (8)
* To beat out PC, needs 3 more pts than PC gets in remaining games
* Magic number vs Lowell: 6
* Magic number vs BC: 4
* Lowell (6)
* To beat out PC, needs 2 more pts than PC if win series with PC;
3 if lose series to PC
* To beat out Merrimack, needs 1 more pt than Merrimack
* Magic number vs BC: 4
* BC (6)
* To beat out PC, needs 5 more pts than PC (probably - tiebreakers
iffy)
* To beat out Merrimack, needs 3 more pts than MC
* To beat out Lowell, needs 3 more pts than Lowell
PC, Merrimack, and Lowell all "control their own destiny." PC needs 4 pts
in their remaining three games to clinch home ice regardless of what anyone
else does. Merrimack needs 6 pts in four games, regardless of what anyone
else does. And Lowell can clinch home ice by sweeping PC this weekend.
To clinch home ice *this weekend*, here's what each team has to do:
* Providence
1) Sweep Lowell
2) Beat and tie Lowell
3) Split with Lowell, and
a) BC does not beat UMass, or
b) NU sweeps Merrimack
* Lowell
1) Sweep PC
* Merrimack
1) Sweep NU, and
a) PC and Lowell split, or
b) PC sweeps Lowell
2) Beat and tie NU, and
a) BC does not beat UMass, and
a) PC sweeps Lowell, or PC beats and ties Lowell
3) Split with NU, and
a) PC sweeps Lowell, and BC loses to UMass
* Boston College
Cannot clinch home ice this weekend.
UMass can finish 7th and be the sixth seed only if UMass beats BC and
Maine, and BC loses to NU and Merrimack. UMass cannot finish higher than
7th.
Northeastern is guaranteed to finish 9th and be the 8th seed.
--- ---
Mike Machnik [log in to unmask] *HMM* 11/13/93
***** (Part-Time) Color Voice of Merrimack Hockey WCAP 980 AM *****
***** Unofficial Merrimack Hockey home page located at: *****
***** http://www.tiac.net/users/machnik/MChockey/MChockey.html *****
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