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Wed, 24 Feb 1993 14:21:58 EST |
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I have been trying to get this out for weeks, but other things keep
getting in the way. Finally. This is TCHCR, using last year's game
outcome measure. You may recall that TCHCR no longer considers site or
margin of victory. Here is what it would look like if I hadn't made
the change. The "no goal" column is the normal TCHCR for the week (as
of Sunday).
The "old" GOM was +10 for a win, -10 for a loss, zero for a tie. This
base was modified by +1 if you were on the road and -1 if you were
home. If you won by 1, 2 or 3 goals, then the goal margin was added or
subtracted. 4 & 5 goal margins were +/- 4 and margins >= 6 were +/- 5.
(OT goals are not part of the margin of victory.) Finally, if you held
your opponents to < 25% of the total goals scored in the game, you got
an additional +1.
Here are the GOMs for Brown, for example:
Home Away Neutral
L 2-3 -12 L 4-7 -12 W 6-4 +12
W 5-3 +11 W 8-3 +15
W 5-2 +12 L 2-4 -11
L 4-6 -13 L 3-6 -12
L 3-5 -13 L 4-12 -14
W 6-4 +11 T 5-5 +1
W 5-4 +10 T 3-3 +1
L 2-4 -13 W 7-4 +14
W 8-3 +13 L 2-5 -12
W 6-2 +13 W 5-2 +14
W 4-2 +13
If you add up those 22 numbers, you'll get +28. Divide that by 22 to get
Brown's performance, +1.27 (see below).
Just like always, "schedule" is the average rating of your opponets and
rating is the sum of performance and schedule.
Draw your own conclusions.
Keith
============================================================================
The College Hockey Computer Rating
compiled by Keith Instone
SPECIAL EDITION: Goal margin, site and defensive bonus included along
with game outcome.
No Division I
Rank Goal Team Record Performance Schedule Rating
1 1 Maine 29 1 2 12.03 1 1.15 4 13.18
2 4 Michigan 22 5 2 8.62 3 -0.53 28 8.09
3 2 Boston University 21 7 2 6.20 6 1.83 3 8.03
4 3 Harvard 18 2 2 9.23 2 -2.07 42 7.15
5 5 Miami 22 7 3 6.28 4 0.40 14 6.68
6 6 Lake Superior 20 6 4 6.23 5 -0.35 25 5.88
7 7 Minnesota-Duluth 21 8 1 5.97 7 -0.84 34 5.13
8 8 Wisconsin 21 10 1 4.62 8 -0.43 27 4.19
9 9 RPI 14 7 3 3.83 9 -0.67 31 3.17
10 12 Michigan State 17 12 2 2.45 12 0.23 18 2.68
11 11 Mass-Lowell 18 14 0 1.84 14 0.43 13 2.27
12 10 Providence 16 13 2 1.23 18 0.98 5 2.21
13 15 Clarkson 13 9 4 3.04 10 -0.83 33 2.21
14 13 Western Michigan 17 13 2 1.25 17 0.46 12 1.71
15 14 New Hampshire 15 14 2 0.65 20 0.91 6 1.56
16 16 St Lawrence 15 9 2 2.92 11 -1.96 41 0.97
17 23 Michigan Tech 13 13 4 0.50 22 0.27 17 0.77
18 18 Minnesota 15 11 6 1.44 15 -0.68 32 0.75
19 20 Brown 11 9 2 1.27 16 -0.87 35 0.40
20 19 Alaska-Fairbanks 10 9 2 0.71 19 -0.33 24 0.38
21 17 Yale 14 9 2 2.44 13 -2.18 43 0.26
22 24 St Cloud 14 13 1 0.57 21 -0.42 26 0.15
23 21 Denver 15 14 2 -0.03 23 0.06 20 0.03
24 25 Northern Michigan 14 15 3 -0.09 24 -0.11 23 -0.21
25 22 Ferris State 13 14 3 -0.77 26 0.52 11 -0.24
26 29 Bowling Green 13 19 1 -2.12 28 0.75 8 -1.37
27 26 Vermont 11 11 3 -0.12 25 -1.38 39 -1.50
28 30 Kent 12 15 3 -1.23 27 -0.60 30 -1.83
29 27 Merrimack 11 16 2 -2.62 29 0.77 7 -1.86
30 28 Alaska-Anchorage 7 9 3 -2.74 30 0.04 21 -2.70
31 31 Northeastern 9 20 1 -5.00 33 2.15 2 -2.85
32 32 Boston College 7 20 4 -5.87 37 2.54 1 -3.33
33 33 Dartmouth 9 13 0 -2.82 31 -1.10 38 -3.92
34 34 North Dakota 11 22 1 -4.32 32 0.21 19 -4.11
35 35 Illinois-Chicago 8 20 2 -5.40 36 0.33 16 -5.07
36 36 Princeton 5 13 3 -5.00 33 -0.58 29 -5.58
37 37 Colgate 6 15 2 -5.13 35 -0.96 36 -6.09
38 39 Colorado College 7 24 0 -7.10 40 0.52 10 -6.57
39 38 Notre Dame 6 21 2 -6.97 39 0.35 15 -6.61
40 40 Cornell 5 16 1 -6.45 38 -1.49 40 -7.94
41 41 Ohio State 4 24 2 -9.30 41 0.69 9 -8.61
42 42 Air Force 2 13 1 -9.44 42 -1.10 37 -10.54
43 43 Union 2 18 0 -10.75 43 -0.10 22 -10.85
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