Some notes on the CCHA play-off picture. Everyone has played 26 games
and has 4 remaining. With 11 teams, pretty neat how the schedule-maker
did that, no?
 
   Team             Pts  Opponents Left    Highest  Lowest
 1.Miami            43   BG, OS, FS, LS      1        3
 2.Michigan         40   LS, ND, K, OS       1        3
 2.Lake Superior    40   Mich, WM, IC, Mia   1        4
 4.Michigan State   32   K x 2, BG, ND       3        6
 5.Western Michigan 30   ND, LS, OS, K       4        6
 6.Ferris State     25   IC x 3, Mia         4        8
 7.Kent             21   MS x 2, Mich, WM    6        9
 8.Bowling Green    19   Mia, OS, ND, MS     6       10
 9.Illinois-Chicago 16   FS x 3, LS          7       10
10.Notre Dame       12   WM, Mich, BG, MS    8       11
11.Ohio State        8   Mia, BG, WM, Mich  10       11
 
(Defn: you "get a point" versus someone when you earn a point or they
fail to earn a point. If you win, you earn two points; if they lose you
earn two points. If you beat a team, then you quickly earn 4 points
versus that team.)
 
The top 3 are almost set. Lake Superior needs 1 point vs MSU to clinch
third. MSU wins the tie-breaker with LSSU, so if they tie at 40 points,
MSU gets the nod. MSU has to win its last 4 and LSSU has to lose its
last 4 for this to happen. Not likely. MSU loses the tie-breaker with
Michigan, so the Wolverines can't finish below third.
 
Miami needs 6 points vs. Michigan and 6 vs. LSSU to wrap up #1. Miami
loses the tie-breaker with Michigan (total goals head-to-head). Miami
leads LSSU 1-0-1 with 1 game left at the Soo. If Miami wins that game,
they would be an almost shoe-in to finish ahead of the Lakers.
 
The Lakers have the toughest set of 4 games left among the top 3, but
they can control their own destiny to a degree because they play Miami
and Michigan once each.
 
LSSU and Michigan are tied 1-1 head-to-head, with LSSU leading in goals
8-6. This Friday's game between LSSU and Michigan is REAL REAL
important. If either team wins, it will be ahead of the other by 2
points plus it'll win the tie-breaker. A tie puts the Lakers ahead
by a hair.
 
Ferris needs 4 points vs Kent and two vs. BG to earn home ice. They can
wrap it up without any help this weekend if they sweep the Flames in
Chicago.
 
Kent needs 6 points vs BG to finish ahead of them. The Golden Flashes
have 4 tough games, but they are all at home.
 
Bowling Green needs only 1 point vs. Notre Dame to avoid 10th place.
BG needs 5 points vs UIC to end up 8th or better. That means if both
teams split this weekend, UIC could still catch the Falcons on the
final weekend of play. Finishing 9-11 means you MIGHT face Miami,
LSSU or U of M in the first round. Yuk. Better to finish 8th and avoid
them altogether (not that MSU/WMU are slouches, tho).
 
Notre Dame needs 4 points vs. OSU to keep the Bucks in the cellar.
Considering that OSU must play Miami and Michigan, the Bucks will have
to pull off a major upset to finish higher than 11th.
 
It will be hard for teams to jockey for the 7-11 spots, since
Alaska-Fairbanks will be thrown in there somewhere. For example, BG
might fight hard to try and finish 7th to travel to #6 FSU instead of
#5 WMU. But if the CCHA office seeds UAF 7th, BG is pushed down to #8
and must play at Western anyway. Likewise, if BG would rather go to
WMU, they would have to figure out where UAF will be seeded first.
Basically, the teams are at the mercy of the league.
 
Finally, here is what the standings would be if there are no "upsets"
the rest of the way. That is, if the team with the higher league point
total won every time (LSSU and Michigan tie, of course). I certainly
do not expect this to really happen--just food for thought.
 
 1. Miami              51 points
 2. Michigan           47
 3. Lake Superior      45
 4. Michigan State     40
 5. Western Michigan   36
 6. Ferris State       31
 7. Bowling Green      23
 8. Kent               21
 9. Illinois-Chicago   16
10. Notre Dame         12
11. Ohio State          8
 
 
 
Keith