Nathan wrote:
>Up until you get to WMU I tend to agree. But I would say Western
>Michigan is far from a shoo-in at this point. Right now it is a toss up
>between BGSU and WMU. WMU must win this weekend or I don't see them
>going to the NCAAs. The same is true of BG of course. Not that WMU is
>bad, but they have not been as good over the end of the season as BG. In
>the eyes of the selection people, the NCAA bid is BGs to lose. WMU might
>have to win at the Joe to prove themselves, even should they win against BG.
Western, according to Tim's PWR, is 7th at the moment (right behind Maine)
and BG is 12th. Head-to-head comparisons between the two have Western Michigan
essentially demolishing BG, being ahead in RPI, record over last 20, record
vs. teams under consideration, head-to-head play, and common opponents.
Western might be the only team in the CCHA at the moment that can afford to
lose its first round series and still make the tournament (besides LSSU, who
is already in) among those with winning records, mainly because they are
playing BG, a team with a very high winning percentage. This is, of course,
provided that there are no major upsets in the other conferences (i.e. someone
in the top 13 in the PWR wins the HE, ECAC, and WCHA tourneys). Michigan, and
especially Michigan State, might not get in if they lose their first-round
series, since their RPI ratings could take a serious nosedive.
If Western gets to the Joe, they're probably a lock. Even if they don't get
there, they're probably in anyway. BG, IMO, has to beat WMU and probably get
to the CCHA finals to get in, especially if Cornell or Colgate makes the ECAC
finals or wins the ECAC.
In a sense, you're right. An NC$$ bid is BG's to lose. If they lose before
March 16, they're probably watching the NC$$'s on ESPN2. But Western, barring
some major shakeups in the college hockey world, is in the tournament. (MSU
is another story.)
G. M. Finniss
Michigan State University 22-7-1, 26-10-1
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