On Tue, 26 Jun 2001, Bob Griebel wrote:

> "Rowe, Thomas" wrote:

>> I don't doubt you - but the numbers on Mercyhurst and Wayne State
>> are so high I wonder if they aren't jokes.  I suspect once you
>> reach a certain level (like 100:1 or maybe 200:1) this all becomes
>> meaningless.  Any numbers beyond a 100:1 should be just that - less
>> than 1%.

> I think the "Tom" version is supported by the common sense
> realization that real-world factors Krach ignores don't let the odds
> fall below some di minimis level for any college game.  One percent
> might even be low, but we'd need to know the odds of an irregular
> flu outbreak, a Colorado reporter's misquote that turns Yost fans
> rabid for Wayne State, whether Bill Wilkinson knows secrets about
> puck reflections off Buffalo's boards, and the alma mater of the
> ref's wife who filed for divorce yesterday.  Shouldn't those be
> incorporated into Krach?

Of course, the answer to that rhetorical question is that you can only
model so many effects.  But even if you did, it would increase odds of
winning a single game, which aren't ridiculously low even for WSU and
Mercyhurst.  (See my earlier post which included odds of reaching each
round.)

Something to keep in mind is that the odds of Mercyhurst winning the
entire tournament are not the odds of them pulling off a shocking
upset, but the odds of them pulling off four shocking upsets in a row.
So if they have one chance in 40 of beating any big four teams, that
gives them one chance in 40^4 = 2,560,000 of doing it four times in a
row.  Even if a team had one chance in 4 of winning any one of their
tournament games, they'd still only have one chance in 128 -- less
than 1% -- of winning the national championship.  That's why you don't
see a #16 seed in the Final Four[TM]; to get there they'd have had to
pull off not only two upsets in the Sweet Sixteen[TM] but also two
upsets in the regionals just to get three.

                                          John Whelan, Cornell '91
                                                 [log in to unmask]
                                     http://www.amurgsval.org/joe/

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