Paulette Dwen asked:
 
>Who would you rather see in a tournament, a team that did very well overall
>during the year, or a team that was on a hot streak in the playoffs?  I
>think that the hot team is going to make the playoffs more exciting.  If a
>team doesn't perform well in a conference tournament, what does that say
>about the likelyhood that they'll do well in a national tournament where
>the competition is higher overall?
 
Most of the time, it says very little.  A hot streak (or cold streak, for
that matter) of four games that stands out from the rest of a team's record
is generally an illusion of a small sample set.  That's as true for
conference tournament performances as for four game stretches of the regular
season.  As is often the case in life, we like to see patterns and give
meaning to things that really aren't.  This isn't to say that teams didn't
play well, just that they are likely to drop back to their expected level of
performance at some point in the very near future.
 
There will be endless debate about this, but one example to look at is the
reputation Colorado College has established for itself as playoff
choke-artists.  This assessment is based on a total of four games lost (last
game of the 1994 first round WCHA playoff vs. Michigan Tech; 1995 WCHA final
vs. Wisconsin; 1995 NCAA quarterfinal vs. Minnesota; 1996 WCHA semifinal vs.
MTU).  Is there a real trend here?  Perhaps, but I still think it's a bit
early to tell.  I'm still thinking that CC is the team that makes it to Cinci
out of that bracket, unless the two week layoff has killed them.
 
None of this should be taken to mean that Cornell (or Lowell, for that
matter) aren't legitimately on a roll.  Both have put together strings of
good play a lot longer than four games, and they have to be considered as
much tougher than they were two months ago.
 
This might be an argument to put some subjectivity back into the selection
process.  Unfortunately, I don't have a lot of confidence in the committee.
 We went to this system for a reason.
 
J. Michael Jackson
 
HOCKEY-L is for discussion of college ice hockey;  send information to
[log in to unmask], The College Hockey Information List.