Once again, it’s time for the ECAC Playoff Permutation Spectacular, that
annual monument to -- well, obfuscation, probably. As the league’s final
weekend approaches, we know that Union and Cornell will be the top two seeds
in some order, and that Princeton, Rensselaer, and Brown will be on the road
for the first weekend of the playoffs. Beyond that, things get wonderfully
murky.
Going into the final weekend of league play, here's a breakdown of where
each team in the ECAC could finish. As always, I'm greatly indebted to
John Whelan's excellent playoff possibilities script at
http://www.slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?ecac.cgi
For each ECAC team, I've listed the following:
THIS WEEKEND: The team's weekend games, its last two (or three) of the
season.
ON THEIR OWN: The highest the team could finish with no help from the
competition. Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE: The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE: The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
standings win.
TIEBREAKERS: How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 4 points) in the
standings. Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
more than just those two teams tied. For instance, Clarkson wins the
head-to-head tiebreaker against St. Lawrence with a 2-0 record; however,
in a three-way tie involving those two and Harvard, Clarkson would
actually be seeded lower than St. Lawrence. This is one of those
exceedingly rare instances in which a season sweep still isn’t enough to
guarantee a tiebreaker win in all cases.
For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:
1. Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such as in
tournaments, do not count).
2. League wins.
3. Record against the top four teams in the conference.
4. Record against the top eight teams in the conference.
5. Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
6. Goal differential against the top four teams in the conference.
7. Goal differential against the top eight teams in the conference.
Note that if the tie is among three or more teams, the tiebreaking steps are
used in order until a team, or multiple teams, is/are separated from the
“pack”. Once that happens, the process starts all over to break the remaining
ties. For example, when the above steps are applied to a four-way tie, once
one team is separated out leaving a three-way tie, the procedure goes back to
the first step with the three remaining tied teams.
Without further ado, here’s how things look:
Union:
THIS WEEKEND: At Cornell, at Colgate.
ON THEIR OWN: Wraps up first place with at least a tie against Cornell.
BEST CASE: First.
WORST CASE: Would drop to second if Cornell sweeps.
TIEBREAKERS: Could win or lose against Cornell.
Cornell:
THIS WEEKEND: Union, Rensselaer.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches first with two wins.
BEST CASE: First.
WORST CASE: Finishes second if they lose to Union.
TIEBREAKERS: Could win or lose against Union.
Colgate:
THIS WEEKEND: Rensselaer, Union.
ON THEIR OWN: Three points will guarantee the Raiders third place.
BEST CASE: Third.
WORST CASE: Falls to seventh with two losses if Quinnipiac and St.
Lawrence sweep, Harvard beats Clarkson, and Clarkson does not lose to
Dartmouth. This would set up either a three-way tie for fifth involving
Colgate, St. Lawrence, and Harvard or a four-way tie for fourth involving
those teams and Clarkson. In both cases, the tiebreakers would put
Colgate seventh.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Yale; loses to Harvard; could win or lose against
Clarkson, Quinnipiac, and St. Lawrence.
Clarkson:
THIS WEEKEND: At Dartmouth, at Harvard.
ON THEIR OWN: Takes fourth place if they get three points this weekend.
BEST CASE: Climbs to third with a sweep if Colgate gets no more than two
points.
WORST CASE: Would finish eighth if they get swept, St. Lawrence and Yale
both win twice, and Quinnipiac beats Brown.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Harvard; could win or lose against Colgate,
Quinnipiac, St. Lawrence, and Yale.
Harvard:
THIS WEEKEND: St. Lawrence, Clarkson.
ON THEIR OWN: Guarantees fourth by beating Clarkson and not losing to
St. Lawrence.
BEST CASE: Clinches third with a sweep if Colgate gets no more than two
points.
WORST CASE: Drops to ninth with two losses if Dartmouth wins twice, Yale
gets at least three points, and Quinnipiac beats Brown. This would set
up a three-way tie for seventh involving Harvard, Dartmouth, and St.
Lawrence, with the tiebreakers putting Harvard ninth.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Colgate, Clarkson, and Quinnipiac; loses to St.
Lawrence; could win or lose against Yale and Dartmouth.
Quinnipiac:
THIS WEEKEND: Brown, Yale.
ON THEIR OWN: Two wins would wrap up sixth place.
BEST CASE: Rises to third if they sweep, Colgate and Clarkson both lose
twice, and Harvard loses to St. Lawrence.
WORST CASE: Would fall to ninth with two losses if Dartmouth wins twice
and St. Lawrence beats Harvard.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Harvard and St. Lawrence; could win or lose
against Colgate, Clarkson, Yale, and Dartmouth.
St. Lawrence:
THIS WEEKEND: At Harvard, at Dartmouth.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches sixth with a sweep.
BEST CASE: Would climb to third if they win twice, Yale also sweeps,
Colgate loses twice, and Clarkson beats Harvard and loses to Dartmouth.
This would set up a four-way tie for third among St. Lawrence, Harvard,
Colgate, and Yale, with St. Lawrence winning the tiebreaker.
WORST CASE: Finishes ninth if they lose twice and Yale does not.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Harvard, Quinnipiac, and Princeton; loses to
Dartmouth; could win or lose against Colgate, Clarkson, and Yale.
Yale:
THIS WEEKEND: At Princeton, at Quinnipiac.
ON THEIR OWN: Takes seventh with a pair of wins.
BEST CASE: Clinches fourth with two wins if Colgate gets at least one
point, Clarkson gets swept, and St. Lawrence beats Harvard and does not
beat Dartmouth.
WORST CASE: Drops to ninth with two losses if Dartmouth gets at least
three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Dartmouth and Princeton; loses to Colgate; could win
or lose against Clarkson, Harvard, Quinnipiac, and St. Lawrence.
Dartmouth:
THIS WEEKEND: Clarkson, St. Lawrence.
ON THEIR OWN: Two wins would give the Big Green eighth place.
BEST CASE: Takes fifth with a sweep if Harvard loses twice, Yale and
Quinnipiac tie, and they both lose their other game. This would set up a
four-way tie for fifth among Dartmouth, St. Lawrence, Harvard, and
Quinnipiac, with Dartmouth winning the tiebreaker.
WORST CASE: Falls to eleventh with a pair of losses if Rensselaer wins
twice and Princeton gets at least three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats St. Lawrence, Princeton, and Brown; loses to Yale;
could win or lose against Harvard, Quinnipiac, and Rensselaer.
Princeton:
THIS WEEKEND: Yale, Brown.
ON THEIR OWN: Would guarantee tenth place by beating Brown.
BEST CASE: Finishes ninth with two wins if Dartmouth gets no more than
one point.
WORST CASE: Would drop to twelfth if they lose twice and Rensselaer gets
at least three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Rensselaer; loses to St. Lawrence, Yale, and
Dartmouth; could win or lose against Brown.
Rensselaer:
THIS WEEKEND: At Colgate, at Cornell.
ON THEIR OWN: Wraps up eleventh place with a sweep.
BEST CASE: Climbs to ninth with two wins if Dartmouth loses twice and
Princeton gets no more than one point.
WORST CASE: Finishes twelfth if they get swept and Brown does not.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Brown; loses to Princeton; could win or lose against
Dartmouth.
Brown:
THIS WEEKEND: At Quinnipiac, at Princeton.
ON THEIR OWN: Can do no better than twelfth place without help.
BEST CASE: Gets tenth place with a sweep if Rensselaer does not win
twice.
WORST CASE: Twelfth.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Dartmouth and Rensselaer; could win or lose
against Princeton.
--
Bill Fenwick
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