It is certainly way too early to do a detailed analysis of who might
get in and who might not, but since Steve asked, here's how the ECAC
teams' chances would look if the season ended today, based on the
methods employed last year:
 
Brown, Vermont, Clarkson, and Harvard are the only ECAC teams who
*could* get in without winning either the reg season or playoffs.  That
is because Harvard, at #16, has a rating of .5223 which is still
within .01 of 12th place Clarkson, .5290.  The RPI is used to order
teams first, and then any teams within .01 of each other can be
compared using additional factors like record in last 20.
 
The next highest ECAC team after Harvard is Princeton, 19th/.5183,
which puts them just on the outside since .5290 (12th, Clarkson) minus
.5183 (Princeton) is > .01.  Princeton could not beat out Clarkson.
 
Therefore, at least 2 of the above 4 teams would go, assuming the reg
season & playoff champs came from this group, since 2 teams are
guaranteed from each conference.  I'm not going to take the time to
look at the other factors that would then come into play in the head
to head comparisons, but suffice it to say that these four teams have
an inside track right now, and any others like Princeton and RPI still
need to do something the rest of the way to move themselves into
contention for a bid.  They're not far behind, though.
 
As well, any of these teams could easily drop out of contention with a
rough second half.  No one is guaranteed anything right now.  It is
still very wide open.
---                                                                   ---
Mike Machnik                                            [log in to unmask]
Cabletron Systems, Inc.                                    *HMM* 11/13/93