Back again with the ECAC's annual monument to confusion, not to mention
sadism -- the Playoff Permutations!  This year's "final weekend" has the
added attraction of a Tuesday night game between Harvard and Brown,
rescheduled from the beginning of February.  Despite that extra little
complication, the ECAC has split itself neatly into three groups.  Union
and Yale will finish 1-2 in some order; Cornell, Dartmouth, Rensselaer, and
Princeton will fight it out for the #3 through #6 spots, and then there are
The Rest:  Clarkson, Quinnipiac, Brown, St. Lawrence, Colgate, and Harvard
get to divvy up the remaining six seeds.

Going into the final weekend of league play, here's a breakdown of where
each team in the ECAC could finish.  As always, I'm greatly indebted to
John Whelan's excellent playoff possibilities script at
http://69.31.82.90/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?ecac.cgi

For each ECAC team, I've listed the following:

THIS WEEKEND:  The team's weekend games, its last two (or three) of the
     season.
ON THEIR OWN:  The highest the team could finish with no help from the
     competition.  Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE:  The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE:  The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
     This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
     standings win.
TIEBREAKERS:  How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
     some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 4 points) in the
     standings.  Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
     lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
     more than just those two teams tied.


For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:

1.   Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such as in
     tournaments, do not count).
2.   League wins.
3.   Record against the top four teams in the conference.
4.   Record against the top eight teams in the conference.
5.   Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
6.   Goal differential against the top four teams in the conference.
7.   Goal differential against the top eight teams in the conference.

Note that if the tie is among three or more teams, the tiebreaking steps
are used in order until a team, or multiple teams, is/are separated from
the "pack".  Once that happens, the process starts all over to break the
remaining ties.  For example, when the above steps are applied to a
four-way tie, once one team is separated out leaving a three-way tie, the
procedure goes back to the first step with the three remaining tied teams.


And now onto How Things Could Shake Out in the ECAC:

Union:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Quinnipiac, Princeton.
     ON THEIR OWN:  The Dutchmen clinch the top spot with a sweep.
     BEST CASE:  First.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes second if Yale gets at least one more point than
     they do.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Yale.

Yale:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Colgate, Cornell.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Has already wrapped up second place and can do no better
     without help.
     BEST CASE:  Climbs to first if they get at least one more point than
     Union does.
     WORST CASE:  Second.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Union.

Cornell:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Brown, at Yale.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Finishes third with two wins.
     BEST CASE:  Third.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to sixth if they lose twice, Dartmouth does not get
     swept, Princeton beats Rensselaer and does not lose to Union, and
     Rensselaer beats Quinnipiac.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Dartmouth and Rensselaer; could win or lose against
     Princeton.

Dartmouth:
     THIS WEEKEND:  St. Lawrence, Clarkson.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches fourth place with a pair of wins.
     BEST CASE:  Would finish third with a sweep if Cornell does not win
     twice.
     WORST CASE:  Drops to sixth with two losses if Rensselaer gets at least
     one point and Princeton gets at least three.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Princeton; loses to Cornell and Rensselaer.

Rensselaer:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Princeton, Quinnipiac.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Beating Princeton guarantees the Engineers fifth place.
     BEST CASE:  Clinches third with a sweep if Dartmouth does not win twice
     and Cornell gets no more than two points.
     WORST CASE:  Would end up in sixth place if Princeton sweeps.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Dartmouth and Princeton; loses to Cornell.

Princeton:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Rensselaer, at Union.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Gets the #5 seed with two wins.
     BEST CASE:  Rises to third with a sweep if Cornell and Dartmouth each get
     no more than one point.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes sixth if they lose to Rensselaer and Cornell does
     not get swept.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Dartmouth and Rensselaer; could win or lose
     against Cornell.

Clarkson:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Harvard, at Dartmouth.
     ON THEIR OWN:  A sweep wraps up seventh place.
     BEST CASE:  Seventh.
     WORST CASE:  Would fall to ninth if they lose twice, Quinnipiac does not
     get swept, and Brown gets at least four points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Quinnipiac, Brown, and St. Lawrence.

Quinnipiac:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Union, at Rensselaer.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Guarantees eighth place with two wins.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes seventh with a sweep if Clarkson does not win twice.
     WORST CASE:  Drops to tenth if they lose twice, Brown gets at least three
     points (with at least one win), and St. Lawrence sweeps.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Clarkson and St. Lawrence; could win or lose
     against Brown.

Brown:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Harvard (Tuesday), Cornell, Colgate.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Four points would clinch ninth place.
     BEST CASE:  Climbs to seventh with three wins if Clarkson gets no more
     than two points and Quinnipiac does not sweep.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes twelfth if they lose three times, Harvard wins
     their other two games, Colgate also beats Yale, and St. Lawrence beats
     Dartmouth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats St. Lawrence; loses to Clarkson; could win or lose
     against Quinnipiac, Colgate, and Harvard.

St. Lawrence:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Dartmouth, at Harvard.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Wraps up tenth place by beating Harvard.
     BEST CASE:  Would finish eighth with a sweep if Quinnipiac loses twice
     and Brown gets no more than two points.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to twelfth if they lose twice, Colgate sweeps, and
     Harvard wins at least one of their other two games.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Colgate and Quinnipiac; loses to Clarkson, Brown, and
     Harvard.

Colgate:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Yale, at Brown.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Can do no better than twelfth without help.
     BEST CASE:  Rises to ninth place if they win twice, Brown loses their
     other two games, St. Lawrence gets swept, and Harvard does not beat 
     Clarkson.
     WORST CASE:  Twelfth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to St. Lawrence; could win or lose against Brown and
     Harvard.

Harvard:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Brown (Tuesday), Clarkson, St. Lawrence.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Three wins would give Harvard tenth place.
     BEST CASE:  Clinches ninth with three wins if Brown gets no more than one
     point.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes twelfth if they lose all three games.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats St. Lawrence; could win or lose against Brown and
     Colgate.



Bill Fenwick
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