Once again, it's the ECAC Tiebreaking Bonanza! With the final weekend of
the ECAC season approaching, here's a breakdown of where each team in the
league could finish. Frankly, dealing with the ECAC tiebreaking procedures
makes me wonder what the big controversy was over the judging in the
Olympic women's figure skating. That scoring system is a model of clarity
compared to this unholy mess. Again, I'm greatly indebted to John Whelan's
excellent playoff possibilities script at
http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/2002/ecac.cgiframe.html
Although the picture gets convoluted very quickly, at least we know two
things already: Cornell will finish first, and Vermont will finish last.
For the other ECAC teams, I've listed the following:
THIS WEEKEND: The team's weekend games, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN: The highest the team could finish with no help from the
competition. Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE: The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE: The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
standings win.
TIEBREAKERS: How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 4 points) in the
standings. Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
more than those two teams tied. For example, Clarkson wins the
head-to-head tiebreaker with Colgate with a 1-0-1 record, but in a
four-way tie involving those two plus Brown and Rensselaer, Clarkson
would actually be seeded lower than Colgate.
For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:
1. Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such as in
tournaments, do not count).
2. Record against the top five teams in the conference.
3. Record against the top ten teams in the conference.
4. Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
5. Goal differential against the top five teams in the conference.
6. Goal differential against the top ten teams in the conference.
Though I've never seen it listed, I believe there is a seventh tiebreaker,
consisting of a coin flip between two teams or a drawing of lots among
three or more teams. There's a potential tie between Union and St.
Lawrence that could go this far.
Clarkson:
THIS WEEKEND: Vermont, Dartmouth.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches second place with a sweep.
BEST CASE: Second.
WORST CASE: Finishes seventh if they lose twice, Harvard and Brown
get
at least one point, Colgate gets at least two points, and Rensselaer
gets at least three.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Harvard; could win or lose against Dartmouth,
Colgate, Brown, and Rensselaer.
Harvard:
THIS WEEKEND: At Yale, at Princeton.
ON THEIR OWN: A pair of wins guarantees third place.
BEST CASE: Clinches second with two wins if Clarkson does not win
twice.
WORST CASE: Drops to seventh if they get swept, Dartmouth gets at
least one point, Brown and Colgate get at least two points, and
Rensselaer gets at least three.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Clarkson; could win or lose against Dartmouth,
Colgate, Brown, and Rensselaer.
Dartmouth:
THIS WEEKEND: At. St. Lawrence, at Clarkson.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches third with a sweep.
BEST CASE: Finishes second with a sweep if Harvard does not win
twice.
WORST CASE: Would finish seventh with two losses if Rensselaer gets
at
least three points and Brown and Colgate get at least two.
TIEBREAKERS: Could win or lose against Clarkson, Harvard, Colgate,
Brown, and Rensselaer.
Colgate:
THIS WEEKEND: At Union, at Rensselaer.
ON THEIR OWN: Two wins would give the Raiders fourth place.
BEST CASE: Would clinch second with a sweep if Clarkson, Harvard, and
Dartmouth get no more than two points each.
WORST CASE: Falls to eighth if they lose twice, Princeton sweeps, and
Brown does not lose to Yale.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Brown; loses to Princeton; could win or lose
against Clarkson, Harvard, Dartmouth, and Rensselaer
Brown:
THIS WEEKEND: At Princeton, at Yale.
ON THEIR OWN: A sweep would guarantee fifth place for the Bears.
BEST CASE: The Bears finish second with a sweep if Colgate and
Clarkson do not win twice and Dartmouth and Harvard do not get more
than two points each.
WORST CASE: Finishes eighth if they and Colgate both lose twice and
Princeton sweeps. This would set up a three-way tie for sixth place,
with the tiebreakers putting Brown in eighth.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Colgate; could win or lose against Clarkson,
Harvard, Dartmouth, Rensselaer, and Princeton.
Rensselaer:
THIS WEEKEND: Cornell, Colgate.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches sixth with two wins.
BEST CASE: Gets second with a sweep if Clarkson and Dartmouth tie and
each lose their other game, Harvard gets no more than one point, and
Brown gets no more than two.
WORST CASE: Drops to ninth with two losses if Union sweeps and
Prince-
ton picks up at least three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Union; could win or lose against Clarkson,
Harvard, Dartmouth, Colgate, Brown, and Princeton.
Princeton:
THIS WEEKEND: Brown, Harvard.
ON THEIR OWN: A sweep gives the Tigers eighth place.
BEST CASE: Finishes sixth with a sweep if Brown loses twice, Colgate
and Rensselaer do not tie, and the loser of that game loses their
other
game.
WORST CASE: Falls to eleventh if they lose twice, Union gets at least
two points, and St. Lawrence and Yale get at least three.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Colgate; could win or lose against Brown,
Rensselaer, Union, St. Lawrence, and Yale.
Union:
THIS WEEKEND: Colgate, Cornell.
ON THEIR OWN: Two wins will wrap up ninth place.
BEST CASE: Would finish seventh with a sweep if Princeton does not
win twice and Rensselaer gets swept.
WORST CASE: If they lose twice and St. Lawrence and Yale get at least
two points each, the Dutchmen finish eleventh.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Rensselaer; could win or lose against Princeton,
St. Lawrence, and Yale.
St. Lawrence:
THIS WEEKEND: Dartmouth, Vermont.
ON THEIR OWN: Has already clinched eleventh and can do no better
without help.
BEST CASE: Would finish eighth with two wins if Yale does not sweep,
Union gets no more than two points, and Princeton gets no more than
one.
WORST CASE: Finishes eleventh if they lose twice and Yale does not.
TIEBREAKERS: Could win or lose against Princeton, Union, and Yale.
Yale:
THIS WEEKEND: Harvard, Brown.
ON THEIR OWN: Can do no better than eleventh without help.
BEST CASE: Clinches eighth with two wins if St. Lawrence does not
win twice, Union gets no more than two points, and Princeton gets no
more than one.
WORST CASE: Finishes eleventh if they get swept and St. Lawrence does
not.
TIEBREAKERS: Could win or lose against Princeton, Union, and St. Law-
rence.
--
Disclaimer -- Unless otherwise noted, all opinions expressed above are
strictly those of:
Bill Fenwick
Cornell '86 and '95 DJF 5/27/94
LET'S GO RED!! JCF 12/2/97
"It's politics, which comes from the Latin 'poli', meaning 'many', and 'tics',
meaning 'blood-sucking parasites.'"
-- Dave Barry
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