The flaws in the selection criteria are not reflected by Niagara but by
Quinnipiac, so let's not try to defend the NCAA's criteria by pointing at
Niagara's performance against New Hampshire and North Dakota.  Unlike the
situation with Quinnipiac other rating systems put Niagara within range of
making or in the tournament if they had been used.  If the NCAA knows enough
to eliminate Quinnipiac from consideration then they clearly know their
criteria are at least somewhat flawed.  Niagara though went out this year
and played as good a schedule as an independent team can play and much of it
was on the road.  They won the CHA regular season and post season
championship.  They do deserve credit for that and I think they were very
worthy of selection to the NCAA tournament.
 
However, as John Whelan pointed out there were definitely three or four
other teams that might also have been just as worthy choices for the final
spot in the tournament.  Northern Michigan, Mankato, Rensselaer and even
Minnesota were right there with Niagara and could have been defended as
choices for the tournament especially with one more win.  Positions may well
have been switched if Niagara had lost the CHA tournament championship game
or if one of the other teams had finished just a little stronger.
 
I disagree too about whether those other four teams might have beaten New
Hampshire or made a respectable showing against North Dakota.  For one thing
New Hampshire was already looking vulnerable in the last half of the season.
Their finish was not especially strong.  A look at alternative ratings like
CCHP or KRACH shows Niagara and the other teams all had a good shot at
knocking off the Wildcats.  They were just 5-5-5 in their last 15 games
going into the NCAA tournament game against Niagara after a midseason
stretch where they were 14-1-1.  They were also up and down early in the
season with bad losses 6-0 to Rensselaer--one of the four other teams--and
5-1 to Yale.  They also had 12 one-goal wins which is outstanding but leaves
them within striking distance of good or inspired opponents.  All this
combined spelled potential trouble for them especially if they didn't
recognize Niagara would be both good and inspired.
 
I wouldn't discount the other teams capability of beating North Dakota
either.  Minnesota (1-2-1) and Mankato (1-1-2) both had wins against North
Dakota.  Whether a three-goal loss to North Dakota is respectable is in how
it is looked at.  I would have expected North Dakota to win by about two
goals in a game with Niagara.  For anyone to think Niagara would be blown
out against North Dakota would have been to deny just how well they played
this season.  But the other teams that may have been under consideration
could have been expected to do just as well.
 
Still Niagara made their case in the selection criteria and other rating
systems as well as finishing their season with their 3-2 CHA tournament
championship win on the road against UAH at Huntsville.  The other four
teams just didn't do what they needed to do to convincingly take away
Niagara's bid to the tournament.  In the end Niagara earned it and they all
fell just short.
 
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