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Date: | Sun, 4 Feb 1996 12:00:22 -0900 |
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Michigan State accomplished what none of the other contenders in the =
CCHA could over the weekend and that was win both games. With =
convincing wins over Ferris State and Notre Dame, they moved out to a 5 =
point lead with only four weeks left in the season. The problem they =
face now is that they have 7 games remaining against the top teams in =
the conference and a road game against Notre Dame they can't afford to =
take lightly. Have they opened a big enough lead to hold on or will =
they limp home 2-4-1 as projected and let all three of the other =
contenders pull by? They've looked very good but are only 3-4 against =
the other top teams with those remaining seven games left. Michigan can =
still sneak by everyone with a game in hand and a perfect finish, =
although they also have 5 games remaining against the top teams. None =
of the top four contenders can be ruled out, although even a strong =
finish by Lake Superior may leave them short as they now trail Michigan =
State by 7 points.
Two key games will be played this coming weekend with a home and away =
series between Michigan State and Western Michigan. Each team has a =
slight edge on their home ice and they may split. A sweep for either =
team will move them close to the CCHA title. Michigan State would move =
to a projected 48 points with a sweep, Western Michigan to 49 with a =
much easier finishing schedule.
For the other top teams this weekend, Lake Superior plays two games at =
home against a resurgent Miami team that virtually locked up a place in =
the playoffs and possibly the #6 spot with two wins against =
Alaska-Fairbanks over the weekend. Michigan hits the road for single =
games at Notre Dame and Illinois-Chicago. Lake Superior and Michigan =
should win both games, but with Miami coming on strong at the finish and =
Michigan's trouble against Ohio State another surprise could happen. =
Bowling Green also plays road games at Illinois-Chicago and Notre Dame =
that they should win, but they will probably stay in the #5 spot no =
matter how they finish.
The bottom of the league is another story. Ferris State picked up a =
point with a tie on the road at Western Michigan and appears to have the =
edge right now for the #7 position despite trailing Alaska-Fairbanks by =
a single point. They play two games at home this weekend against Ohio =
State in which they rate as slight favorites. Wins would put them in a =
strong #7 spot in the conference. Alaska-Fairbanks which might have put =
a lock on a playoff spot with wins over the weekend against Miami can =
now only sit back and watch for a week with two non-conference games =
against Waterloo. Notre Dame also had a chance to move up this week but =
lost all three games and now has a pair of home games against Michigan =
and Bowling Green. Illinois-Chicago faces the same two teams at home =
but is another two points back in a tie for last place. They did win =
their critical game over the weekend against Notre Dame, but they need =
to pick up more points to stay alive. Right now Ohio State is the =
surprise team at the bottom. After another tie with Michigan on the =
road and with a reasonable chance at 5 or more points in their last 8 =
games, they could sneak into the #8 playoff spot. They play two games =
on the road this weekend at Ferris State with a chance to come up with =
at least one win there and another two the following weekend at home =
with Alaska-Fairbanks in two games that may determine who gets that last =
spot.
Now for the numbers...
CURRENT REMAINING PROJECTED LAST
W L T PTS W L T PTS W L T PTS WEEK =
CHG
1 Michigan 16 4 2 34 8 0 0 16 24 4 2 50 51 -1
2 Western Michigan 16 4 3 35 6 0 1 13 22 4 4 48 49 -1
3 Lake Superior 16 5 1 33 6 2 0 12 22 7 1 45 47 -2
4 Michigan State 20 3 0 40 2 4 1 5 22 7 1 45 45 0
5 Bowling Green 12 9 1 25 6 2 0 12 18 11 1 37 33 4
6 Miami 8 11 3 19 2 5 1 5 10 16 4 24 22 2
7 Ferris State 5 15 3 13 3 2 2 8 8 17 5 21 20 1
8 Alaska-Fairbanks 7 18 0 14 0 3 2 2 7 21 2 16 20 -4
9 Ohio State 3 14 5 11 1 4 3 5 4 18 8 16 13 3
10 Notre Dame 5 14 3 13 1 7 0 2 6 21 3 15 17 -2
11 Illinois-Chicago 5 16 1 11 0 6 2 2 5 22 3 13 13 0
PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS
Alaska-Fairbanks at Michigan
Ferris State at Western Michigan
Miami at Lake Superior
Bowling Green at Michigan State
GAME PROJECTIONS
DATE AWAY HOME
2/ 9 OSU 2.5 FSU 3.0
2/ 9 BGSU 4.3 UIC 3.2
2/ 9 MU 2.7 LSSU 5.1
2/ 9 UM 5.1 ND 2.2
2/ 9 MSU 2.8 WMU 4.0
2/10 OSU 2.5 FSU 3.0
2/10 UM 5.6 UIC 2.2
2/10 MU 2.7 LSSU 5.1
2/10 WMU 2.6 MSU 2.9
2/10 BGSU 3.8 ND 3.2
2/13 ND 1.8 WMU 6.1
2/16 UIC 2.5 BGSU 5.4
2/16 MU 3.3 FSU 4.1
2/16 ND 1.9 UM 8.6
2/16 LSSU 3.4 MSU 2.5
2/16 UAF 2.9 OSU 2.8
2/17 UIC 2.5 BGSU 5.4
2/17 LSSU 4.0 FSU 1.9
2/17 MSU 2.7 UM 4.0
2/17 UAF 2.9 OSU 2.8
2/17 MU 2.1 WMU 5.2
2/20 MSU 4.5 ND 2.9
2/23 OSU 2.6 BGSU 4.2
2/23 FSU 4.0 UIC 4.0
2/23 UM 4.0 LSSU 3.2
2/23 ND 4.0 MU 5.9
2/24 ND 3.2 BGSU 6.1
2/24 FSU 4.0 UIC 4.0
2/24 UM 4.0 LSSU 3.2
2/25 MU 3.1 OSU 3.0
2/28 WMU 4.5 UAF 1.9
2/29 BGSU 2.3 MSU 4.0
3/ 1 WMU 4.5 UAF 1.9
3/ 1 UIC 3.3 MU 5.2
3/ 1 MSU 2.8 UM 6.5
3/ 1 LSSU 3.8 OSU .8
3/ 2 WMU 4.5 UAF 1.9
3/ 2 LSSU 4.9 MU 2.8
3/ 2 BGSU 2.1 UM 6.8
3/ 2 FSU 3.6 ND 4.1
3/ 2 UIC 2.2 OSU 3.1
Eric Carlson
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