I told someone in email that I expected at least 1 surprise this time
around. To me it was swapping Denver and Boston College. Only a minor
surprise compared to some of the other things that could have been
done, that's for sure.
Here is my reverse-engineering of what happened (again, guesses) and analysis.
1. How did they pick Ohio State and Northern Michigan as the last 2
at large teams?
I dunno. Could have come about many different ways. Was Quinnipiac
thrown out early, even before those teams were picked? Did QC just
miss out as the 13th team? How big was the bubble? How far did
Niagara go before they dropped out? Was Notre Dame right on the edge,
as Dave Poulin told us on the air? And so on.
Given all of the possibilities for these picks, OSU and NMU are
certainly not bad choices.
2. How were the 12 teams ranked BEFORE the east/west balancing?
That is, where would the teams have fallen into east and west
sectors, before having to even them up 6 west and 6 east?
WEST EAST
North Dakota 1 New Hampshire
Michigan State 2 Clarkson
Colorado College 3 Maine
Denver 4 Boston College
Michigan 5 St. Lawrence
Ohio State 6
Northern Michigan 7
The only new thing here is how to rank Michigan, Ohio State and
Northern Michigan. Michigan beats the other two on the criteria and
OSU beats NMU. Thus the ordering from 5th to 7th.
3. How were the regions balanced because of the 7/5 split?
WEST EAST
North Dakota 1 New Hampshire
Michigan State 2 Clarkson
Colorado College 3 Maine
Denver 4 Boston College
Michigan 5 St. Lawrence
Ohio State 6 Northern Michigan
I suspect they just moved NMU into the empty 6th east slot. SLU beats
NMU, so NMU is not moved up into the 5th slot.
4. What were the initial bracket assignments, before any fiddling?
Cross over the bottom two from one sector into the other regional.
Re-evaluate the #4 seeds with respect to the #5 (or even #6) seeds to
see if there is any shifting. None in this case, because BC beats
Michigan and Denver beats SLU.
5W St Lawrence (E) 6E Ohio State (C)
4W Denver (W) 3E Maine (H)
1W North Dakota (W) --+--2E Clarkson (E)
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2W Mich State (C) --+--1E New Hampshire (H)
3W CO College (W) 4E Boston College (H)
6W Northern Michigan (C) 5E Michigan (C)
There is one reason that I DO NOT like simply taking the 7th west
team and moving into the east 6 slot, and then doing the
"double-switch" to bring them back to the west regional. If you
assume that playing in your natural region a reward, then NMU WINS BY
LOSING the comparisons with Michigan and OSU.
I would much rather reward Michigan for finishing higher than OSU and
NMU, move the Wolverines to the east temporarily, and then move them
back to the west.
Anyway, they have been doing it that way (the wrong way) for years.
They were consistent.
In some years, step 4 is the stopping point. If everything falls into
place nicely, with no attendance problems or any possible
intra-conference match-ups, then the committee stops here and has an
early break.
In some years there are first round intra-league games, which are a
high priority to fix. In some years there is a host team that ends up
in the wrong region. None of that this time.
But, obviously, SECOND ROUND league match-ups were really considered
bad this year, so the committee did some fiddling. I would have been
pretty happy with the brackets above, but the committee was not.
5. What fiddling was done to improve the match-ups?
a. Boston College and Denver were swapped: 4E and 4W. This fixes two
possible 2nd round league match-ups at once. I do not recall this
happening before. In the past I thought the committee protected the
4th seeds more by letting them stay in their own region. I guess
being the 4th best team in your region does not mean much this year.
b. Technically, after BC's move to the west, the Eagles should have
been bumped up to the #3 seed, since they beat CC on the criteria.
This was overlooked, since it would put Colorado in North Dakota's
bracket.
c. We still have Northern Michigan in Michigan State's bracket.
Swapping NMU and SLU fixes that. The difference between the 5th and
6th seed is not much (especially compared to putting teams in
different regions); this seems like a wise move.
No further fiddling with the eastern bracket is needed.
Repeating John's brackets here for completeness:
5W Northern Mich (C) 6E Ohio State (C)
4W Boston Coll (H) 3E Maine (H)
1W North Dakota (W) --+--2E Clarkson (E)
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2W Mich State (C) --+--1E New Hampshire (H)
3W CO College (W) 4E Denver U (W)
6W St Lawrence (E) 5E Michigan (C)
Also, I noticed that ESPN did show seeding numbers (1W, 3E, etc) when
they announced the brackets. I thought over the last few years this
was done away with, since after the fiddling, the seed #s do not mean
much. I wonder if this change was on purpose, an accident, or just my
imagination.
6. And finally, who can bitch the loudest? Who should be happiest?
There is always something to complain about. In general, I would say
this is a good field with good match-ups. But those with the biggest
gripes:
a. The 13th-15th teams, whoever they are. The actual "bubble"
resolution process is not clear. I hope the committee clarifies that
for next time. (Along with a few other improvements.)
b. Boston College fans. They have to travel west, after their team
fights hard to have the 5th best overall pairwise ranking.
c. North Dakota and Boston College. The #1 team (by PWR) may have to
face the #5 (BC) in the 2nd round. So much for rewarding the top team
with a cream puff path to the semis.
I doubt Michigan and Denver will complain. Both could have been
placed in the west, but traditionally the western teams have not done
poorly in the east regionals. Still, they might harp a bit.
Maine should be ecstatic, getting to face perhaps the last team in,
then a team that is ranked below them. I am not saying it is an easy
path to the semis on the ice, but it is on paper.
New Hampshire gained by getting BC out of their way, I suspect.
I believe Quinnipiac and the MAAC are the big winners, even without
getting a bid. They got to be mentioned with the "big boys" in their
first year as a league. They shook things up, they got noticed. This
should help immensely down the road.
Niagara and Mankato did well to finish above .500 and be included (on
paper) as teams under consideration. Niagara might have even been the
13th team. Excellent seasons for both regardless.
Keith
Keith Instone [log in to unmask]
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