> what appears to be happening is what has already happened to basketball. D
-1 basketball contains a number of teams that will never win a national
championship but are D-1 and occasionally pull off an upset in the
tournament.
 
I don't see this as necessarily happening.  It makes sense for as many
schools as possible to join the Div I basketball circus -- it's hugely
lucrative to even get one game against 34 Inch Neck U. -- Dick Vitale graces
your cafeteria for 15 minutes and you can underwrite your hoops program for
the next 8 years.
 
But.  Hockey is different.  For one thing, it's ridiculously expensive.  The
jury is still out on whether the AD's are any more forthcoming with
credulous figures than, say, NHL owners during a players strike, but it
certainly appears that almost every school loses money on hockey, and that
many lose a lot.  Given  the academic environment as the locus of many
competing interest groups, all whining quite eloquently for "more vital
resources" (or whatever), will schools do this on purpose indefinitely, for
a sport with a tiny natural constituency?
 
The serious question becomes, do you lose more or less money as you move
from Div. III to Div. I?  All other things being equal, you probably lose
more.  But as in life, all things are not equal, and if you run a winning
program you are rewarded by higher attendence and probably a higher alum
Donation to Create a Feeling of Vicariously Shared Success to Compensate for
My Unhappy Midlevel Mangement Career effect.
 
We'll see if admitting an entire new conference "works" (if by works you
mean increases the number of programs, quite apart from other valid
considerations of the quality of the game itself).  It has a better chance
of working than admitting programs piecemeal, if only because it will
artificially create a few teams with instant great "Div. I" records.  Once
the new conf. gets swinging, somebody has to finish first, which means
somebody is going to go 20-9 or something.   They may also wind up 33rd in
the PWR, but still they'll win (in fact they'll probably big a bigger talent
spread in the new conf, which means they'll win their share of 9-2 games) at
home in front of appreciative fans, who will help absorb at least the cost
of moving up a level, and possibly even put enough cash in hand to build a
brand new boondoggle, er um, I mean barn.
 
But after a few years of going 20-9, making the NCAA tourny under whatever
rule eventually handles them, and maybe even doing fairly well and thus
being able to attract a number of strong players and a top flight coach,
what does Now Legitimately Talented Newcomer U do to convince their fellow
fifth conf brethren -- some of who are going 9-20, you understand -- to stay
in the game?
 
What indeed?  I suspect what will eventually come of this is the collegiate
equiv. of the WHA and the ABA -- a small fraction of the program which
pioneer the new conf will ride their success and stay around, the rest will
fold.  That might even be a better thing -- after all, the programs which
remain will be the most devoted, and the level of play and commitment to the
sport should also remain fairly un-watered-down.
 
We'll see.
 
-- Greg
 
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