So, I tried playing around with my own "what if" page
<http://www.slack.net/~whelan/cgi-bin/tbrw.cgi?hypo> (now that I've
fixed the problem that was causing hypothetical results to be ignored)
and discovered that it's fairly easy to concoct a scenario where
Clarkson does not make the NCAAs.  If the Knights go 0-2 in Lake
Placid, that seems to reverse their comparisons with BC, Ohio State
and UNH, even if BC and/or OSU go 0-1 in their conference tourneys.
If darkhorses win all four conference tournaments, then Michigan, BC,
OSU and UNH would take the at-large bids, leaving the Knights out in
the cold.  I haven't tried every scenario along these lines, but
here's one that works:
 
     * Minn-Duluth def. St Cloud
     * Minn-Duluth def. North Dakota
     * CO College def. Wisconsin
     * Minn-Duluth def. CO College
     * Wisconsin def. North Dakota
     * Northern Mich def. Mich State
     * Michigan def. Ohio State
     * Northern Mich def. Michigan
     * Princeton def. Cornell
     * Yale def. Princeton
     * Harvard def. Clarkson
     * Harvard def. Yale
     * Princeton def. Clarkson
     * Merrimack def. Boston Coll
     * Maine def. Mass-Lowell
     * Maine def. Merrimack
 
        Independent confirmation would certainly be welcome, in case I
screwed something up.  But for instance the Ohio State comparison is
pretty easy to eyeball on the basis of the individual comparisons at
<http://www.uscollegehockey.com/pwr/comparisons.txt>; Clarkson, with a
loss, loses their "last 20" advantage, which makes the criteria 3-2.
 
                                         John Whelan, Cornell '91
                                               <[log in to unmask]>
                      <http://www.cc.utah.edu/~jtw16960/joe.html>
 
        Learn about the NCAA selection process on the web at
       http://www.slack.net/~whelan/cgi-bin/tbrw.cgi?pairwise
 
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