Comments below.   By the way, Maine games this weekend are Friday and
Saturday, with possible Sunday game.  All games are at the Alfond in
Orono at 7pm.  With the students still on break and some season ticket
holders not renewing for the tournament, you may expect tickets
available!

Price: $15.  Value: priceless!   ;-)

D. B. Doucette wrote, in part:

>Lowell now has a lower PWR than Maine after the weekend games. I wasn't too
>far off with my fearless Saturday call, only 17 seconds shy of a Maine win...
>
>That's how PWR is...when Riverhawks beat lowly Merrimack and then lose (at
>home, no less) to almost-as-lowly Providence, UML plummets in the PairWise.
>
>

Their RPI went down with those games, but no longer will anyone's RPI go
down due to beating a weak team, as the NCAA throws those results out
once we get to tournament games(i.e., now).

Also, I watched PWR as games came in Saturday night ... the top teams
were pretty solidly in place, but everyone else jumped all over the map
... as teams fell out of and gained TUC status (RPI>=0.5).

>Maine remains at 14, though, but still looks on the bubble to me.
>
>

14 might be bubble, but as often as not, we'll get a team or two winning
a conference tournament that isn't top 16 (beyond the 2 that we know
will occur).  Also, everyone is still playing ... and playing
increasingly better teams.  Stop winning early and you will get
leap-frogged.

>Could we get the calculations from the Sayles on how Maine will fare with
>some possibilities on the next weekend quarter-finals ?
>
>

There are lots of possibilities (thousands!).    I'll run just one ...
if all HEA series go to the upper seeds in *2* games this weekend, and
other league's games are postponed,  Maine would remain tied for 14th
with NMU.  Dartmouth, Wisconsin and North Dakota would have one more
comparison win in the PWR (obviously, these other teams are all playing
and their game results will affect PWR).  Interesting, perhaps, that UNH
would rocket from 13th to 7th in this scenario (after beating
Northeastern).

OK, I'll run one more ... all HEA series go to the upper seed in *three*
games.  Result is Maine alone in 14th place, with UNH moving only to
11th and BU falling to 10th.  BC falls to 4th place (instead of 3rd).

Stream of consciousness here ... I just realized I didn't discount RPI
remaining unaffected by tournament games against weak opponents.  This
affects RPI of BC & BU. With this tweak, BC remains in a 3-way tie for
1st, BU stays at 8th, NMU again ties Maine for 14th, with UNH's position
in PWR unaffected.

In any event, I estimate Maine must get to and win their HEA semi-final
to have a decent chance at entry into the NCAAs.

Finally, for those that might think the comeback tie by BC Saturday
night was significant, you might be surprised.  It certainly was
significant for BC, as they win the HEA regular season outright, but
they also would have plummeted to 6th place in PWR under our 3-game
series scenario above.   However, Maine would remain in regular season
4th place in HEA, and would remain in 14th place under our 3-game series
scenario.

Go BLUE!   cheers, wayne