>Granted their Hockey East Record isn't what it should be, the mens team
>still has 8 games remaining, all of which they should win, which would
Being the favorite to win each game doesn't make you a favorite to win
all games.
>give them a record of 14-7-3 in Hockey East, and probably a 3 or 4 seed
That's 31 points. Let's agree that Maine won't catch UNH or BU, each of
which now have 27 points (Maine would have to win out and UNH and BU
would have to lose something like 5 of 6). We lose the tie-breaker to
both UNH and BU.
Now let's look at 3rd place. BC has played one more game than
us and has 21 points. BC has a home&home w/UNH and 1 game with BU (the
Beanpot final has no effect on HEA standings). Let's say they lose all
3 (they won't). If Maine wins out (they won't), and BC wins, as
expected, over NU (demolished 6-0 last night), PC (demolished 6-0 two
weeks ago) and UMA home&home, we will have identical records. BC wins
the tie-breaker. Yes, 3rd place in HEA is mathematically possible for
Maine, but very unlikely.
So then the question becomes "Can Maine overtake NU for 4th place in
HEA"? NU has played one more game than us and has 4 more points. If we
assume an immediate win for us in the next game, we'd be 2 points down
with 7 games to play. NU's games include UNH, BC and BU(2). Advantage
to us, but the puck's on their stick to win or lose 4th place. Maine
loses the tie-breaker with NU, so we need to beat NUs record by 3 points
in the remaining games (5 points if we count the game in hand).
My guess is that 4th place is achievable, but will require more than 12
of the possible 16 points. NU might falter badly against the top teams,
but I'd be surprised if less than 12 points by us will get us to 4th
place.
Can we fall below 5th place? Mathematically, yes. But unlikely. PC is
only 3 points back of us but has a grueling schedule with BC, UNH, BU(2)
and Maine(2). MC is also 3 points behind us, but has 2 fewer games
remaining. An MC/Maine split and MC loss to BU will kill MC chances for
5th. UMA is 4 points behind us but will play 2 fewer games and their
opponents are Maine(2), BC(2) and UNH(2) ... ouch!
So, my guess is 4th or 5th place in HEA. We'll see home ice in the HEA
playoffs only if our boys have a remarkable turnaround and quickly gain
enough confidence to play like they can. It won't be easy.
>in the HE tournament. If they can do this they'll finish in the top 5
>nationally, and they are currently 5th in the PairWise, so there is
>really no concern in my mind of them making the NCAA tournament.
One might be concerned. Maine's ranking is good now, but our next games
are against #20, #28, #29 and #36 place teams. The expected
quarter-finals with NU will be against (now) #16. Should we lose two
games in the HEA quarter-finals, I'd be surprised to see Maine in the
PWR top-ten. Although 12 teams are chosen for the NCAAs, typically the
auto-bids mean the 12th and 11th place (by PWR) won't get selected.
Some years, the 10th place doesn't go!
On a lark, I recently calculated RPI for the case of Maine splitting
their remaining games and then losing to NU in 3 games. (The calculation
did not count other remaining college hockey games). Maine would
end in 13th place. No NCAAs.
Too pessimistic, you say? I extended the lark and assumed Maine will
win out, but lose to NU in a 3-game quarter-final. Maine would be
ranked (approximately) in 10th place in RPI (RPI is a factor in PWR and
tracks with PWR well; the NCAA selection committee uses a selection
method that PWR tracks exactly in the past few years).
The last 8 Maine games is just a tune-up for the HEA playoffs. Maine
must do well and make the HEA semi-finals or tank the rest of the
regular season and play in the HEA finals in order to get an NCAA bid,
IMHO.
cheers, wayne
Wayne T. Smith
[log in to unmask] Old Town Landing
Co-owner of the College Hockey lists - Hockey-L and Hockey3
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