---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: Frozen Four odds according to KRACH and KASA
From:    "John T Whelan" <[log in to unmask]>
Date:    Wed, April 7, 2004 11:48 pm
To:      [log in to unmask]
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I've recalculated the odds each of the four Frozen Four teams have of
winning their semifinal and of winning the championship, as determined by
their KRACH ratings, and by their KASA ratings, both calculated from all
results so fat, including last weekend's regional games.
(Since no one is on home ice for the Frozen Four, the only difference in
the calculations is that KRACH and KASA have rated teams slightly
differently due to the impact of home ice on their strength of
schedule to date.)

(Note that you shouldn't really compare the KRACH and KASA ratings of a
particular team directly; what actually matters is the ratio of two teams'
ratings in either system.)

                    |         __Odds to win__ |         __Odds to win__
Seed  ___Team___    | KRACH   1 game  2 games |  KASA   1 game  2 games
--------------------+-------------------------+------------------------
1(2W) Denver        | 468.61  44.91%  18.94%  | 431.37  43.79%  17.83%
4(2M) Minn-Duluth   | 574.89  55.09%  26.02%  | 553.71  56.21%  26.33%
--------------------+-------------------------+------------------------
2(1N) Boston College| 624.04  48.58%  26.39%  | 612.63  48.77%  26.93%
3(1E) Maine         | 660.50  51.42%  28.65%  | 643.63  51.23%  28.91%

(The seeds are determined by the bracketing; the West Regional
champion is the #1 seed, the Midwest #2, etc, due to the PWR rankings of
the #1 seeds in the four regionals.)

More details can be found by looking at last year's post at
http://lists.maine.edu/cgi/wa?A2=ind0304&L=hockey-l&D=0&F=P&P=3302&F=

                                          John Whelan, Cornell '91
                                                 [log in to unmask]
                                     http://www.amurgsval.org/joe/