--- Robin Lock <[log in to unmask]> wrote: > Date: Wed, 24 Mar 2004 14:04:34 -0500 > From: Robin Lock <[log in to unmask]> > Subject: CHODR Probabilities > To: [log in to unmask] > > Using the CHODR ratings (found at http://it.stlawu.edu/~chodr and the > "Off" and "Def" columns below) we can forecast the expected scoring > rates for this coming weekend's NCAA tourney games - then use those > scoring rates to predict the probability of each team advancing to > the > next round (assuming Poisson distributions of scores). The results > are > given below > > WOMEN'S FROZEN FOUR Off Def Round1 Round2 > 1 Minnesota 4.96 1.13 0.785 0.491 > 2 Harvard 3.82 1.00 0.743 0.370 > 3 St. Lawrence 3.48 1.63 0.257 0.063 > 4 Dartmouth 4.00 1.70 0.215 0.076 > > > > > > > EAST > Off Def Round1 Round2 > 1 Maine 3.50 1.40 0.823 0.567 > 2 Ohio State 3.44 2.34 0.430 0.144 > 3 Wisconsin 3.04 1.78 0.570 0.231 > 4 Harvard 2.86 2.58 0.177 0.059 > > > > > > > NORTHEAST Off Def Round1 Round2 > 1 Boston College 3.91 1.63 0.910 0.641 > 2 Michigan 3.58 2.26 0.520 0.182 > 3 New Hampshire 3.80 2.49 0.480 0.158 > 4 Niagara 2.65 3.25 0.089 0.017 > > > > > > > MIDWEST > Off Def Round1 Round2 > 1 Minnesota 4.77 2.24 0.757 0.429 > 2 Minnesota-Duluth 4.39 2.12 0.640 0.350 > 3 Michigan State 3.32 2.12 0.359 0.146 > 4 Notre Dame 2.86 2.29 0.242 0.075 > > > > > > > WEST > Off Def Round1 Round2 > 1 North Dakota 4.76 1.74 0.955 0.746 > 2 Denver 3.64 2.28 0.575 0.152 > 3 Miami 3.32 2.41 0.424 0.090 > 4 Holy Cross 2.26 3.24 0.040 0.007 > > > -- > Robin H. Lock > Burry Professor of Statistics > Department of Mathematics, Computer Science and Statistics > St. Lawrence University > Canton, NY 13617 > [log in to unmask]
