Well......  One (pretty minor) caveat here.  Its just a wee tad broader
than below.  Unless I am misunderstanding something (not the first time)
the automatic bid from all 6 conferences doesn't go to the conference
winner, it goes to the post-season conference tourney winner.  Hence,
even though you began this "if the season ended today" you still have to
account for a dark horse making a run.  Wisconsin had a dreadful season
for a National Champ, but miracles on ice do happen and they could still
wind up with the automatic WCHA bid.  Not holding my breath, though.
:-)

Tom Rowe 

-----Original Message-----
From: - Hockey-L - The College Hockey Discussion List
[mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Mike Abegg
Sent: Monday, March 12, 2007 10:36 AM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: D 1 tourney "if the season ended today"

Amazing how much can change in a weekend.  Miami and Maine move from
looking solidly in to just barely hanging on.  Denver moves from In to
probably Out.  Meanwhile BC and MSU take steps up the charts.  Right now
the committee's job would be fairly easy, with only 1 "host" school
involved.  Here's my take:

Who's in:
6 conference champions, for now, still using the regular season champs,
except in Atlantic hockey where RIT is not eligible to win the
tournament, so we'll use Sacred Heart, and CHA where UAH (!) is IN,
gives us: Mn, NoDame, UNH, SLU, SH, UAH.
10 remaining from PWR, using the .003 bonus: SCSU, Clarkson, BosC, BosU,
NoDak, Mich, MichSt, UMass, UMO (Maine), Mia.  The size of the bonus is
fairly important - if it's .005, MichTech is in and SLU is out, plus a
bunch of shuffling involving mostly Hockey East & CCHA schools.  Also if
the bonus is 0, Dartmouth is in and Maine is out - but it would be dumb
to declare that a bonus exists but has a value of 0!

Seeding 1-16 and raw pairings:
1 Mn       16 UAH
2 NoDam    15 SH/eventual Atlantic Hockey champ
3 SCSU     14 Mia
4 UNH      13 UMO (Maine)

5 Cla      12 SLU
6 BosC     11 UMA (UMass)
7 BosU     10 MSU
8 NoDak     9 Mich

1st round pairing adjustments:
3/13 SCSU/UMO
4/14 UNH/Mia (13&14 swapped to avoid 1st round UNH/UMO)
5/11 Cla/UMA
6/12 BC/SLU (11&12 swapped to avoid 1st rn BC/UMA and Cla/SLU)

That's pretty clean, two one-position swaps clear up the 3 problems.

Regional pairings:
4/14 UNH/Mia vs 5/11 Cla/UMA in MANCHESTER (UNH is host school)
3/13 SCSU/UMO vs 6/12 BC/SLU
2/15 NoDam/SH vs 7/10 BU/MSU
1/16 Mn/UAH vs 8/9 NDk/Mich

And who goes where?  As with last week, one of the 3 western top seeds
needs to go to Rochester.  Since last week we've lost DU and Nigara,
creating greater challenges for attendance in Rochester and Denver.  You
need SLU in Rochester (because it can't have Clarkson as long as they
should be paired with UNH) so SCSU/UMO/BC/SLU goes there, plus BC &
Maine should travel well enough to help that regional.  I suggest that
NoDam/SH/BU/MSU looks attractive for Grand Rapids and minimizes the
travel for Notre Dame, leaving Mn/UAH/NDk/Mich in Denver.

Lots of other possibilities, but they all involve scrambling the bracket
without (to me) obvious improvement in other areas: could flip 5/11 and
6/12, to put Clarkson & UMass in Rochester and move BC & St Lawrence to
Manchester.  Getting Michigan to Grand Rapids either means flipping 7/10
and 8/9 (replacing BU/MSU with NDk/Mich in Grand Rapids) or sending the
NDm/SH/BU/MSU bracket entirely to Denver, neither of which are better
fits to the "rules" (bracket integrity, top seeds close to home,
attendance matters).

This is still a snapshot of a moving target, but it's fun to look at and
ponder.  The possibilities are narrower now than before, but still wide.

Mike A