I am wondering whether any "special consideration" is given to recent
performances. Seems that is an additional factor that favors Wisconsin,
especially with Miami being swept in two games at home by LSSU..
Also, since all tournaments are essentially "away" games seems it would be
something to be considered since some teams are much better at home than
away. All of this being done with the awareness that a few teams may
actually be playing at "home" in the regionals or finals due to location and
that opponent strength adjustments would be necessary in figuring home -
away differences for each team.
Seems there is still room for committee tinkering and we will all know later
today. Does anyone know of a free live internet feed for the selection show
today?
Thanks, Bob Hamilton
-----Original Message-----
From: J. Michael Neal <[log in to unmask]>
To: [log in to unmask] <[log in to unmask]>
Date: Sunday, March 18, 2007 9:44 AM
Subject: Starting the Bitching Early
>It looks as if the WCHA is only going to get three teams into the
>tournament. Frankly, that's a joke. While the top of the WCHA may or
>may not be any better than the other conferences, I don't think that
>it's even questionable that the bottom of the WCHA is much, much tougher
>than is the bottom of any other conference. I've been saying for years
>that the Pairwise is badly flawed, and this is the year that its biggest
>problem really rears its head. That KRACH is better than RPI is pretty
>obvious, but this isn't the biggest problem. The biggest is the Record
>vs. Teams Under Consideration criterion. That this comparison has no
>correction for strength of schedule is a travesty.
>
>Let's look at Wisconsin vs. Miami to see this. Wisconsin played 28
>games vs. TUCs; Miami played 18. Of Miami's 18 games, 10 of them were
>played against teams with an RPI .5095 or lower. Wisconsin played two
>games against TUCs that low; their next lowest rated opponent (Michigan
>Tech) clocks in at .5226, so it isn't even as if I'm selecting an
>egregiously arbitrary break point. Meanwhile, the highest RPI that
>Miami played was two games against Michigan (RPI .5529). Wisconsin
>played ten games against Minnesota, St. Cloud and North Dakota, all of
>whom have RPIs higher than Michigan's. If you control for strength of
>schedule, even using the flawed RPI, Miami's advantage in winning
>percentage against TUCs more than disappears.
>
>It's also pretty telling that, after the top 14 teams are invited to the
>tournament, with a .003 bonus for road nonconference wins, the 15th,
>16th, 17th and 18th ranked teams are all from the WCHA. The perfect
>storm of PWR flaws showed up this year.
>
>--
>J. Michael Neal
>http://idonotlikeyoueither.blogspot.com/
>
>"Tonight your beauty burns into my memory
>the wheel of heaven turns above us endlessly
>this is all the heaven we got, right here where we are in our shangrila."
>
>-Mark Knopfler
>
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