Back again with the ECAC Tiebreaking Bonanza!  Going into the final weekend
of league play, here's a breakdown of where each team in the ECAC could
finish.  No six-way ties are possible this year (how boring), but there is
still jockeying to be done for better seedings, home ice, or even
first-round byes.  As always, I'm greatly indebted to John Whelan's
excellent playoff possibilities script at
http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/2004/ecac.cgiframe.shtml

For each ECAC team, I've listed the following:

THIS WEEKEND:  The team's weekend games, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN:  The highest the team could finish with no help from the
     competition.  Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE:  The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE:  The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
     This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
     standings win.
TIEBREAKERS:  How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
     some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 4 points) in the
     standings.  Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
     lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
     more than those two teams tied.  For example, Dartmouth would win the
     tie-breaker against Brown based on either head-to-head results or
     record against the top four teams -- however, in a three-way tie
     involving those two and Vermont, Dartmouth would actually be seeded
     lower than Brown.

For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:

1.   Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such as in
     tournaments, do not count).
2.   Record against the top four teams in the conference.
3.   Record against the top eight teams in the conference.
4.   Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
5.   Goal differential against the top four teams in the conference.
6.   Goal differential against the top eight teams in the conference.

Though I've never seen it listed, I believe there is a seventh tiebreaker,
consisting of a coin flip between two teams or a drawing of lots among
three or more teams.

OK, here we go:


Cornell:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At St. Lawrence, at Clarkson.
     ON THEIR OWN:  May already have first place wrapped up after Tuesday.
     However, if Harvard beats Brown Tuesday, then Cornell finishes first
     with at least one point on the weekend.
     BEST CASE:  First.
     WORST CASE:  Drops to second if they lose twice and Harvard wins all
     three of their games.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Colgate and Harvard.

Colgate:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Clarkson, at St. Lawrence.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Has already clinched third place and can do no better
     without help.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes second with a sweep if Harvard does not win all
     three of their games.
     WORST CASE:  Third.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Harvard and Vermont; loses to Cornell.

Harvard:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Brown (Tuesday), at Dartmouth, at Vermont.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Three wins wrap up second place.
     BEST CASE:  Would finish first if they win all their games and Cornell
     loses both of theirs.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to fourth with three losses if Vermont does not lose
     to Brown.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Cornell, Colgate, and Vermont.

Vermont:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Brown, Harvard.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches fourth with three points.
     BEST CASE:  Takes third with a sweep if Harvard gets no more than one
     point.
     WORST CASE:  Would drop to sixth with two losses if Brown wins its
     other two games and Dartmouth beats Harvard.  This would set up a
     three-way tie for fourth, with the tiebreakers putting Vermont sixth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Harvard; loses to Colgate, Dartmouth, and Brown.

Dartmouth:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Harvard, Brown.
     ON THEIR OWN:  A point against Brown will give the Big Green fifth
     place.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes fourth with a sweep if Vermont gets no more than
     two points.
     WORST CASE:  Ends up in sixth place if they lose twice and Brown gets
     at least two additional points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Vermont; could win or lose against Brown.

Brown:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Harvard (Tuesday), at Vermont, at Dartmouth.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Two points guarantee sixth place.
     BEST CASE:  Would clinch fourth with three wins if Vermont also loses
     to Harvard.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to seventh if they lose all three games and St.
     Lawrence gets at least three points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Vermont; loses to St. Lawrence; could win or lose
     against Dartmouth.

St. Lawrence:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Cornell, Colgate.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches seventh with two points.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes sixth with a sweep if Brown gets no more than one
     point.
     WORST CASE:  Slides to ninth if they get swept, Union wins twice, and
     Clarkson gets at least three points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Brown, Union, and Clarkson.

Clarkson:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Colgate, Cornell.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Three points would put Clarkson eighth.
     BEST CASE:  Gets seventh with a sweep if St. Lawrence gets no more than
     one point.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes tenth if they lose twice, Rensselaer sweeps, and
     Union does not lose to Princeton.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Princeton; loses to Rensselaer and St. Lawrence;
     could win or lose against Union.

Union:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Yale, Princeton
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches ninth if they don't lose to Princeton.
     BEST CASE:  Would finish seventh with a sweep if St. Lawrence loses
     twice and Clarkson gets no more than two points.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to tenth if they lose twice and either Rensselaer
     sweeps or Princeton beats Rensselaer.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Rensselaer; loses to St. Lawrence; could win or
     lose against Clarkson and Princeton.

Princeton:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Rensselaer; at Union
     ON THEIR OWN:  A win over Rensselaer would lock up tenth place.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes ninth with a sweep if Union does not beat Yale.
     WORST CASE:  Would drop to twelfth if they lose twice, Yale sweeps, and
     neither Dartmouth nor Brown finish in the top four.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Clarkson; could win or lose against Union,
     Rensselaer, and Yale.

Rensselaer:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Princeton, Yale
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches tenth by beating Princeton and not losing to
     Yale.
     BEST CASE:  Climbs to eighth with a sweep if Clarkson and Union both
     lose twice.
     WORST CASE:  Would finish twelfth if they lose twice, Yale sweeps, and
     Brown does not finish in the top four.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Clarkson; loses to Union; could win or lose against
     Yale.

Yale:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Union, at Rensselaer.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Can do no better than twelfth without help.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes eleventh with a sweep if Princeton and Rensselaer
     do not tie and Vermont finishes in the top four.
     WORST CASE:  Twelfth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Could win or lose against Princeton and Rensselaer.


--
Bill Fenwick                                                 DJF   5/27/94
Cornell '86 and '95                                          JCF   12/2/97
LET'S GO RED!!
"Nobody in football should be called a genius.  A genius is a guy like Norman
 Einstein."
-- Former NFL quarterback Joe Theismann, proving at least the first part of
   his statement