---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: First CHODR of 2004-5
From:    "Robin Lock" <[log in to unmask]>
Date:    Tue, November 23, 2004 5:27 pm
To:      [log in to unmask]
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The first installment of CHODR - the College Hockey Offensive/Devensive
Ratings - is now available at http:\\it.stlawu.edu/~chodr. Ratinga are
based on games through 11/21/04 and forecasts cover games from 11/22/04 to
11/28/04.

NEW THIS YEAR:  We're trying a new scheme for determining the overall
rating (old method was offensive ratgin/defensive rating).  The new method
involves predicting scoring rates and win probabilities for each team
playing a balanced schedule against all other Division I teams - then
computing an expected winning percentage for each team under such a
schedule.

Initial results appear below and more information can be found on the
website.

Robin Lock
[log in to unmask]

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                        Division I    Offense       Defense
Expected
Rank  Team              Record        Rating  Rank  Rating  Rank
PCT
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1     Minnesota           8  3  0      4.70     2    1.57     4   0.855 2
   Denver              6  5  0      6.26     1    2.50    23   0.837 3
Wisconsin           9  3  0      3.76    10    1.34     1   0.823 4
Michigan            9  2  1      4.49     3    1.85     6   0.808 5
Colorado College    8  2  0      3.53    13    1.50     2   0.780 6
Maine               9  6  0      3.84     8    1.94     7   0.744 7
North Dakota        7  5  2      3.49    16    1.83     5   0.728 8
Boston College      4  2  2      3.64    11    1.96     9   0.723 9
Cornell             4  2  2      2.96    29    1.56     3   0.714 10
New Hampshire       8  2  1      3.90     6    2.34    17   0.694 11
Michigan State      5  6  1      3.38    18    1.99    11   0.692 12
Alaska-Fairbanks    5  3  0      3.92     4    2.53    24   0.670 13
Boston University   7  3  0      3.64    12    2.39    19   0.661 14
Miami               5  7  0      3.91     5    2.65    27   0.653 15
St. Cloud State     6  5  1      2.95    31    1.95     8   0.649 16
Northern Michigan   5  3  2      3.34    20    2.26    14   0.646 17
Nebraska-Omaha      7  4  1      3.44    17    2.34    18   0.646 18
Ohio State          9  4  1      3.35    19    2.27    15   0.646 19
Lake Superior       3  6  1      2.82    34    1.99    10   0.626 20
St. Lawrence        6  6  1      3.26    22    2.47    22   0.606 21
Northeastern        5  5  1      3.53    14    2.75    32   0.598 22
Minnesota State     5  5  2      3.21    24    2.53    25   0.591 23
Minnesota-Duluth    6  4  2      3.31    21    2.69    30   0.581 24
Bowling Green       6  3  1      3.79     9    3.22    40   0.567 25
Western Michigan    5  6  1      3.19    25    2.84    33   0.546 26
Providence          4  6  1      2.83    33    2.54    26   0.543 27
Massachusetts       6  5  1      2.73    38    2.46    21   0.540 28
Mass.-Lowell        4  5  0      3.26    23    2.99    34   0.534 29
Colgate             8  4  0      2.52    41    2.41    20   0.519 30
Alaska-Anchorage    5  6  1      2.79    37    2.67    29   0.518 31
Union               7  5  0      2.67    39    2.65    28   0.505 32
Vermont             6  4  3      2.15    44    2.25    13   0.489 33
Ferris State        4  9  1      2.89    32    3.08    38   0.478 34
Niagara             5  8  0      2.80    35    3.01    35   0.474 35
Wayne State         7  4  1      2.98    27    3.23    41   0.469 36
Michigan Tech       1 10  1      3.85     7    4.15    50   0.468 37
Rensselaer          6  6  1      2.79    36    3.06    37   0.467 38
Harvard             3  2  1      2.28    43    2.70    31   0.442 39
Notre Dame          2  5  4      1.87    48    2.31    16   0.434 40
Alabama-Huntsville  6  2  2      2.97    28    3.55    43   0.431 41
Merrimack           3  8  0      2.95    30    3.55    44   0.429 42
Bemidji State       5  3  0      2.36    42    3.01    36   0.413 43
Princeton           3  4  1      3.51    15    4.33    52   0.412 44
Clarkson            3  7  1      2.99    26    3.80    46   0.407 45
Dartmouth           4  4  0      1.52    54    2.12    12   0.400 46
Canisius            6  5  1      1.90    47    3.10    39   0.335 47
Mercyhurst          4  6  0      2.64    40    4.16    51   0.328 48
Brown               2  4  1      1.91    46    3.58    45   0.288 49
Air Force           4  4  2      1.63    51    3.31    42   0.272 50
Holy Cross          3  3  3      1.69    50    4.14    49   0.211 51
Quinnipiac          4  4  1      1.53    53    3.96    47   0.204 52
Connecticut         1  9  1      1.70    49    4.66    55   0.179 53
Sacred Heart        4  6  0      1.94    45    5.75    56   0.151 54
Robert Morris       2  8  1      1.27    56    4.34    53   0.148 55
Army                2  6  2      1.12    57    4.09    48   0.142 56
Yale                0  8  0      1.50    55    6.28    57   0.095 57
American Int'l      1  5  1      0.84    58    4.44    54   0.093 58
Bentley             2  7  3      1.60    52    6.76    58   0.090
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Average Team:                          2.77          2.77
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Home Ice Advantage    =  *// 1.078 Goals Per Game.
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Mean Scoring Rate:    2.77
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