Once again, it's the ECAC Tiebreaking Bonanza! Going into the final
weekend of league play, here's a breakdown of where each team in the
ECAC could finish. There's perhaps a bit less drama than there has been
in the past now that all teams are guaranteed to make the playoffs, but
there is still plenty of fighting to be done (well, not literally) for
better seedings, home ice, or even first-round byes. As always, I'm
greatly indebted to John Whelan's excellent playoff possibilities
script at http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/2004/ecac.cgiframe.shtml
For each ECAC team, I've listed the following:
THIS WEEKEND: The team's weekend games, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN: The highest the team could finish with no help from the
competition. Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE: The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE: The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
standings win.
TIEBREAKERS: How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 4 points) in the
standings. Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
more than those two teams tied. For example, Rensselaer wins the head-
to-head tiebreaker with Harvard with a 2-0 record, but in a three-way
tie involving those two and Yale, Rensselaer would actually be seeded
lower than Harvard. (This is the first time I’ve seen a situation in
which a season sweep. a 2-0 record head-to-head, is not enough to
guarantee a tiebreaker win in all cases)
For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:
1. Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such as in
tournaments, do not count).
2. Record against the top four teams in the conference.
3. Record against the top eight teams in the conference.
4. Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
5. Goal differential against the top four teams in the conference.
6. Goal differential against the top eight teams in the conference.
Though I've never seen it listed, I believe there is a seventh
tiebreaker, consisting of a coin flip between two teams or a drawing of
lots among three or more teams.
OK, here we go:
Colgate:
THIS WEEKEND: Clarkson, St. Lawrence.
ON THEIR OWN: Two points will wrap up first place.
BEST CASE: First.
WORST CASE: Drops to third if they lose twice, Cornell sweeps, and
either Dartmouth sweeps or Brown gets at least three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Brown, Dartmouth, and Cornell.
Brown:
THIS WEEKEND: Dartmouth, Vermont.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches second by beating Vermont and getting at least a
tie against Dartmouth.
BEST CASE: Would finish first with a sweep if Colgate gets no more than
one point.
WORST CASE: Falls to fifth if they lose twice, Cornell gets at least
two points, and Rensselaer sweeps.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Cornell; loses to Colgate and Dartmouth; could win
or lose against Rensselaer.
Dartmouth:
THIS WEEKEND: At Brown, at Harvard.
ON THEIR OWN: A sweep gives Dartmouth second place.
BEST CASE: Clinches first with a sweep if Colgate loses twice.
WORST CASE: Would finish fifth if they get swept, Cornell does not, and
Rensselaer gets at least three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Brown, Cornell, and Rensselaer; loses to Colgate.
Cornell:
THIS WEEKEND: St. Lawrence, Clarkson.
ON THEIR OWN: Two wins would guarantee third place.
BEST CASE: Finishes first with a sweep if Colgate loses twice, Dart-
mouth does not sweep, and Brown gets no more than two points.
WORST CASE: Would fall to fifth if they lose twice and Rensselaer gets
at least three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Colgate, Brown, and Dartmouth; could win or lose
against Rensselaer.
Rensselaer:
THIS WEEKEND: At Princeton, at Yale.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches fifth by beating Princeton or at least tying
Yale.
BEST CASE: Would finish third with a pair of wins if Dartmouth gets no
more than one point and Cornell gets no more than two.
WORST CASE: Drops to seventh if they lose twice, Yale gets at least a
tie against Union, and Harvard gets at least three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Dartmouth and Yale; could win or lose against
Brown, Cornell, and Harvard.
Harvard:
THIS WEEKEND: Vermont, Dartmouth.
ON THEIR OWN: Wraps up sixth with two wins.
BEST CASE: Would finish fifth with a sweep if Rensselaer loses twice,
or if Rensselaer ties Princeton and Yale sweeps (this would set up a
three-way tie for fifth among Harvard, Yale, and Rensselaer, with
Harvard getting the highest seed).
WORST CASE: Finishes ninth if they lose twice, Yale beats Rensselaer,
and St. Lawrence and Clarkson both sweep. (If Rensselaer were to beat
Princeton in this scenario, the tie between Harvard and Clarkson would
require the ECAC’s infinite-loop fix!)
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Yale and St. Lawrence; could win or lose against
Rensselaer and Clarkson.
Yale:
THIS WEEKEND: Union, Rensselaer.
ON THEIR OWN: One point will give the Elis seventh place.
BEST CASE: Clinches fifth with two wins if Rensselaer does not beat
Princeton and Harvard does not sweep.
WORST CASE: Falls to eighth if they lose twice and St. Lawrence sweeps.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Rensselaer, St. Lawrence, and Clarkson; loses to
Harvard.
St. Lawrence:
THIS WEEKEND: At Cornell, at Colgate.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches eighth with three points.
BEST CASE: Gets sixth with a sweep if Harvard and Yale both lose twice.
WORST CASE: Would finish eleventh if they lose twice, Vermont and Union
sweep, Clarkson gets exactly two points, and Rensselaer does NOT finish
in the top four.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Clarkson; loses to Harvard, Yale, and Union; could
win or lose against Vermont.
Clarkson:
THIS WEEKEND: At Colgate, at Cornell.
ON THEIR OWN: A sweep guarantees ninth place.
BEST CASE: Finishes seventh with a sweep if Harvard loses twice, St.
Lawrence gets no more than two points, and Rensselaer does NOT finish in
the top four.
WORST CASE: Would fall to eleventh if they get swept, Union gets at
least one point, and Vermont wins twice.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Princeton; loses to Yale and St. Lawrence; could win
or lose against Harvard, Union, and Vermont.
Union:
THIS WEEKEND: At Yale, at Princeton.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches tenth with three points.
BEST CASE: Would finish eighth with a sweep if Clarkson and St. Law-
rence each get no more than two points.
WORST CASE: Drops to twelfth with two losses if Princeton gets at least
a tie against Rensselaer and Vermont gets at least three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats St. Lawrence; loses to Princeton; could win or lose
against Clarkson and Vermont.
Vermont:
THIS WEEKEND: At Harvard, at Brown.
ON THEIR OWN: Three points would give the Catamounts eleventh place.
BEST CASE: Clinches ninth with a sweep if St. Lawrence loses twice,
Clarkson gets no more than one point, and Union gets no more than two
points.
WORST CASE: Finishes twelfth if Princeton gets at least two more points
than they do.
TIEBREAKERS: Could win or lose against St. Lawrence, Clarkson, Union,
and Princeton.
Princeton:
THIS WEEKEND: Rensselaer, Union.
ON THEIR OWN: Can do no better than twelfth without help.
BEST CASE: Finishes tenth with a sweep if Union does not beat Yale and
Vermont gets no more than two points.
WORST CASE: Twelfth.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Union; loses to Clarkson; could win or lose against
Vermont.
--
Bill Fenwick DJF 5/27/94
Cornell '86 and '95 JCF 12/2/97
LET'S GO RED!!
"For surely there is nothing more thrilling in this world than the sight of
a lone man, facing single-handedly, a half a ton of angry pot roast."
-- Tom Lehrer, on bullfighting
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