Deron Treadwell wrote, in part:

>As the clock winds down on another HE Quarterfinal sweep for Maine,
>Larry Mahoney threw this out:
>
>"I think they [Maine] is in, but Wayne Smith, who does a lot of these
>pairwise on his computer thinks Maine [has more work to do]."
>
>Now that Wayne has been cited on the radio, I'll hope he'll share his
>thoughts with us.
>
>

Talk with some people and they blab it all over ;-(

My point at the time was that Maine would be 12th on PWR with the 2nd
win this weekend, if all home teams won. But that was 12th, tied with 3
others and with many games this and next weekend to play.  12th place is
pretty solid for selection, but having 12-15 tied means, this year, that
one and probably two of those tied would not be selected.

But as it turned out, there were several unexpected (to me) results
yesterday, including BGSU losing to A-F, OSU to FSU, UW to A-A, and
Dartmouth to Vt, with the OSU loss being particularly important and the
UW loss being surprisingly a non-event.  I also thought Duluth was ready
for a run, but they have since faltered and are now out.  So at the
moment, we're in a pretty good position ... better than we/I had a
reason to think or that my PWR program showed (it only runs scenarios I
select, not all or the (in the future) correct ones.

Now, UNH is little better off than us, OSU is on the verge of
elimination, BU lives another day ... teams that anyone would think of
as locks 10 days ago.

My point with Larry Mahoney was that, while Maine's position (tied for
11th now, was tied for 12th at the time), is precariously close to 14th
and 15th, with the 14th-17th teams still playing.  With the series win
this weekend, we earn another game to play ... but it will be either a
loss or win (dah!).

Seldom does a loss increase one's chances, but PWR is such a wacky
ranking method, that a loss can sometimes improve position.  Right now,
a win vs BC (we don't necessarily play BC Friday, as I write this) gives
us a comparison bump to a pretty comfortable ranking (alone in 11th).

With a loss, we'd be tied for 11th with only UNH ...still a very good
position.  But this doesn't account for the effects of all other games
... if the teams around and just below us keep winning, we are not
assured of an NCAA bid.

But you've got to like the way the guys have come together as a team.
It's not a perfect team, but it's a vastly better team than the one that
played the first half of the season.  The freshmen are incredible,
Leveille seems to have regained his confidence and Jimmy Howard ...
well, he's the guy any player would love to having playing behind him.

cheers, wayne