> Trying to figure these PWR's out REQUIRES a sports psychologist.......I'm glad you guys are pretty accurate with this sh*$.   I'm going outside to try to level out my driveway.....damn mud season.
> From: "Wayne T. Smith" <[log in to unmask]>
> Date: 2003/03/22 Sat AM 12:32:49 EST
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Subject: Re: Fwd: seedings after saturday night
>
> If we're to believe Charlie (he's usually right!) and the NCAA
> bonus doesn't screw up things too much, we can now be fairly
> confident of a few observations ...
>
> >> # 1 seeds will be
> >>   CC, Cornell, UNH and either maine or minnesota
> >> # 2 seeds will be
> >>   BU, Ferris state, maine/minnesota, and BC/michigan
> ...
> >>
> >>                   number of scenarios in which pwr rank is 1-16
> >>     team          1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13
> >> 14  15  16
> >>
> >-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> >> Colorado College 96  32
> >> Cornell          32  51  29  16
> >> New Hampshire        13  67  48
> >> Maine                        64  16  32  16
> >> Boston University               112  16
> >> Minnesota            32  32          48  16
> >> Ferris State                         32  96
> >> Boston College                               96      32
> >> Michigan                                     32  96
> ...
>
> Without considering the probablility of outcomes Saturday and Sunday, we
> can say that Maine and Minnesota have 50-50 chances of being a top-4
> seed, and if MN is there, ME is out ...  and vice versa.  Furthermore,
> if Maine ends in the #4 spot, we *will* go west, since Cornell and UNH
> would get the eastern regionals.  It seems to me that the NCAA rules
> call for CC to go to Minneapolis and ME to Ann Arbor, but a better
> tournament might be had by reversing these.  So I think, barring changes
> due to the secret bonus, Maine has a 50% chance of going to Minneapolis
> as a regional 1st seed (opponent unknown, but not a top-quality team).
>
> Now if Maine doesn't get the #4 position, we'll get #5-7.  The other
> teams in this band would be BU, FS and either BC (75%) or Michigan(25%).
> (All good teams to avoid!).  BU will be in Worcester, so Maine will not
> be.  Michigan will be in Ann Arbor, leaving Maine at Minneapolis (again)
> or Providence.  As band-3 teams pose little problem, it comes down to
> what considerations the NCAA will use (they haven't told us).  Will they
> avoid 2nd round 1-conference games?  Will they give 4 HEA teams a chance
> to go to the Frozen Four?  Do they consider Maine or BC a better draw in
> Providence?  I *don't* think they will send both ME and BC west, just so
> we can have an all-HEA Frozen Four, as revenue considerations will take
> precedence.  These same revenue considerations will dictate some
> possible 2nd round 1-conference games, IMHO.
>
> So whereas ME looked like a good candidate for Ann Arbor a week or so
> ago, it looks like a better than even bet of Minneapolis, with
> Providence a possibility.  I hope Charlie does his calculations again
> tomorrow night, for I fear the Sunday MAAC title game will affect the
> Maine ranking.
>
> Are there any Sport Psychologists out there?  How does one turn around a
> team that has lost early season confidence and great play?  I hope Coach
> Whitehead has talked with everyone that might have a chance of knowing!
>
> cheers, wayne
>
> Wayne T. Smith
> [log in to unmask]                          Old Town Landing
> The College Hockey lists: Hockey-L and Hockey3 at http://lists.Maine.edu/
>

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