If we're to believe Charlie (he's usually right!) and the NCAA
bonus doesn't screw up things too much, we can now be fairly
confident of a few observations ...
>> # 1 seeds will be
>> CC, Cornell, UNH and either maine or minnesota
>> # 2 seeds will be
>> BU, Ferris state, maine/minnesota, and BC/michigan
...
>>
>> number of scenarios in which pwr rank is 1-16
>> team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
>> 14 15 16
>>
>-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>> Colorado College 96 32
>> Cornell 32 51 29 16
>> New Hampshire 13 67 48
>> Maine 64 16 32 16
>> Boston University 112 16
>> Minnesota 32 32 48 16
>> Ferris State 32 96
>> Boston College 96 32
>> Michigan 32 96
...
Without considering the probablility of outcomes Saturday and Sunday, we
can say that Maine and Minnesota have 50-50 chances of being a top-4
seed, and if MN is there, ME is out ... and vice versa. Furthermore,
if Maine ends in the #4 spot, we *will* go west, since Cornell and UNH
would get the eastern regionals. It seems to me that the NCAA rules
call for CC to go to Minneapolis and ME to Ann Arbor, but a better
tournament might be had by reversing these. So I think, barring changes
due to the secret bonus, Maine has a 50% chance of going to Minneapolis
as a regional 1st seed (opponent unknown, but not a top-quality team).
Now if Maine doesn't get the #4 position, we'll get #5-7. The other
teams in this band would be BU, FS and either BC (75%) or Michigan(25%).
(All good teams to avoid!). BU will be in Worcester, so Maine will not
be. Michigan will be in Ann Arbor, leaving Maine at Minneapolis (again)
or Providence. As band-3 teams pose little problem, it comes down to
what considerations the NCAA will use (they haven't told us). Will they
avoid 2nd round 1-conference games? Will they give 4 HEA teams a chance
to go to the Frozen Four? Do they consider Maine or BC a better draw in
Providence? I *don't* think they will send both ME and BC west, just so
we can have an all-HEA Frozen Four, as revenue considerations will take
precedence. These same revenue considerations will dictate some
possible 2nd round 1-conference games, IMHO.
So whereas ME looked like a good candidate for Ann Arbor a week or so
ago, it looks like a better than even bet of Minneapolis, with
Providence a possibility. I hope Charlie does his calculations again
tomorrow night, for I fear the Sunday MAAC title game will affect the
Maine ranking.
Are there any Sport Psychologists out there? How does one turn around a
team that has lost early season confidence and great play? I hope Coach
Whitehead has talked with everyone that might have a chance of knowing!
cheers, wayne
Wayne T. Smith
[log in to unmask] Old Town Landing
The College Hockey lists: Hockey-L and Hockey3 at http://lists.Maine.edu/
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