In a Portland newspaper article, reprinted here, Kevin Thomas makes
   many good points and a few very good predictions.  However, I believe
   Mr. Thomas slips up on a couple of points.  At least, I'll argue in
   another direction.

Kevin Thomas wrote, in part..
>If Maine can beat BU on Friday, it also may keep the Black Bears in the East
> Regional in Worcester, Mass.

Although it's difficult to predict the results of all the conference
tournaments, it's becoming clear that there is little chance of Maine or
any other east school (ECAC, MAAC, HEA) heading to the West regional.

My expectation is that Maine will play in the NCAA East Regional in
Worcester, whether they beat BU and the UNH/UML winner ...  or not.

   More below.

>New Hampshire is almost a lock to be a seeded team in the East. The NCAA
> selection committee also could put BU and Maine in the East, but likely would
> send one of them to the West Regional in Michigan.

None of these statements appear to have much basis in fact, IMHO.

UNH is almost a lock for a first-round bye.  Barring an HEA Championship
by UML, UNH, BU and Maine will represent HEA in the NCAAs.  Assuming
Cornell wins the ECAC (they've dominated the ECAC this season), Cornell
will join the MAAC Champion (probably Mercyhurst, but it doesn't matter)
as the only other East school reps.  That's 5 teams from the East,
leaving 7 teams from the West.

What Mr. Thomas discounted, or wasn't aware of, is that last month the
NCAA renewed their post-911 edict telling selection committees to
minimize air travel.  So whereas previous-year rules would have made UNH
travel West as the 1W seed, they will almost assuredly stay in the East.

BU *will* stay in the East, because they are the East Regional host
school, and by rule the host school stays home, if selected.  (BU is a
lock).

In past years, the NCAA Selection Committee would have some East and
West teams "cross-over" to the other regional.  This gives the best
chance for the best teams in the Phrozen Phour, while avoiding 1st and
2nd round conference matchups.  However, in a recent tele-conference,
the NCAA reiterated the effort to minimize air travel for the Men's Ice
Hockey tournament pairings.

Given the 7-5 split, and the probable inclusion of UAF in the Phinal-12,
I believe this translates into UAF traveling East, while leaving all
East and West teams in their own region.

Upsets in the HEA (by UML) and ECAC (by anyone) could destroy this
scenario, as then it would be a 7-5 split favoring the East.  At least
one East team would *have* to travel West.  In addition, if UMich and
MSU are both upset in the CCHA tournament, and Maine loses to BU (all
very much unlikely, IMHO), Maine comes dangerously close to missing out
on the NCAAs altogether!

Additional info: the NCAA has raised the air travel restriction from 300
to 400 miles for these regionals.  I'll guess that this means no East
teams will fly to either Ann Arbor or Worcester.  Several WCHA teams are
still likely to fly to their games.

If the selection committee ignores the air travel minimization, or
dilutes it, one could argue that the procedures used by the NCAA to
place teams in the brackets may well be independent of how Maine or UNH
do in the HEA Tournament this weekend.  IMHO, it would be a crap shoot.

   FWIW, I highly recommend Mr. Thomas' and the Portland paper's
   coverage of Maine hockey.  You can count on excellent coverage from
   them every week.

cheers, wayne

Wayne T. Smith
[log in to unmask]                          Old Town Landing
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