Deron wrote, in part ..
>In my estimation, with *no* upsets in the big three conferences, Maine
>will have to be at least 10th without needing to win the Hockey East
>Tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament.  Higher than that would be
>ideal.

It's unlikely for an ECAC team and improbable for *any* MAAC team to
break into the top 10(*), given the current ratings.  One MAAC team
*will* be selected, so #12, if not a tournament champion, *will* stay
home.  Same can be said for the ECAC, so #11 will stay home.  (Deron's
logic is good!  :-)).   (*): OK, Clarkson is currently 10th, but I
don't think that will last through the league tournaments!

But there are always upsets, so a ranking of 8 or 9 will probably be
required.  8th & 9th now?  PC & UNH!

DB wrote, in part..
>Without a doubt, we MUST win the HE tournament...

I don't think so.  I think we MUST win 3 or 4 points this weekend and
then do well in the HEA tournament.

I just ran the RPI calculation for Maine beating PC twice ...  and we
would jump to 9th, just ahead of PC, entering the league tournaments (I
haven't recalculated PWR).  3 points from PC moves us only to #11.

So I think *2* wins over PC is critical for NCAA selection, should we
not win the HEA Tournament Championship.

But no one but the current top-6 (MiState, NoDak, BC, MN, StCld, Mich)
should feel very secure ...  performance in the league tournaments will
be critical for everyone else.

And Deron wrote, in part..
>What we do know is this, a sweep of the Friars next weekend will have us
>no lower than 3rd-place in HE and if UNH loses just a point, 2nd-place,
>which would always help our chances at advancing in the HE Tournament.  It
>is starting to look like Maine is going to have to put together a good
>run, if not win the HE Tournament, to make it into the NCAA's.

Yep.  Scoring only 1 goal in the 2nd UML and MC games could make one a
bit pessimistic about "a good run", but that is what's needed.

By the way, some were worrying about home ice in the HEA quarter-finals.
In case you missed it, it's *almost* wrapped up.  Maine is tied for 3/4
with 25 points.  BU and UML have 21 points.  UML has only 1 game
remaining, so cannot catch us.  BU needs wins vs MC and BC (and 2 Maine
losses vs PC) to reach 25 points and gain the final home-ice berth, as
they beat Maine on the 2nd tie-breaker (head-to-head is 1-1-1,
conference wins 11-10).

Go Blue!

cheers, wayne

Wayne T. Smith
[log in to unmask]                          Old Town Landing
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