Using the 3/17/97 edition of CHODR to forecast the scoring rates in each
possible NCAA game, a joint Poisson model to convert these to
probabilities for winning each game, and keeping track across the
brackets gives the following probabilities for teams to advance to each
round of the playoffs.
Qtr Semi Final Champ
Michigan 100% 77% 58% 42%
Clarkson 100% 53% 30% 13%
BU 100% 60% 21% 11%
UNH 65% 34% 20% 9%
N. Dakota 100% 51% 23% 8%
Miami 64% 35% 17% 7%
Minn 60% 16% 8% 4%
Denver 56% 24% 7% 3%
CC 35% 13% 6% 2%
Cornell 36% 14% 5% 1%
Vermont 44% 16% 4% 1%
MSU 40% 14% 3% 1%
Notes:
These assume no fatigue, home crowd, last change, or momentum effects.
Michigan dominates CHODR (#1 in both offense and defense) so they have
a big effect on the calculations above. Note how a team's chance of
surviving to the next round dives when their bracket hits Michigan.
Current CHODR and predicted scores for this weekend's games can be
found as always at http://it.stlawu.edu/~chodr
Robin Lock
St. Lawrence University
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