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| Date: | Thu, 7 Dec 2000 12:02:56 EST |
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My friend Robin Lock of St. Lawrence University is producing his CHODR
ranking of Division I men's (and women's) ice hockey again this year.
It's now available on his web site at
http://it.stlawu.edu/~chodr/
This ranking has special interest because (1) it measures offensive and
defensive performance and (2) can predict scores of upcoming games.
(Note that CHODR has been changed from an additive to a multiplicative
model, increasing its performance from the ranking used a few years
ago. It typically predicts the winner 70% of the time, ignoring ties).
This ranking seems to give *no* favor to high scoring, poor defensive
teams in favor of defensive-minded winning teams. As a case in point,
here's a sample from this week's ranking. Maine is ranked considerably
higher in it than in other rankings and in the polls.
Based on games played through 12/04/00
Division I Offense Defense Overall
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Rating Rank Rating
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Michigan State 11 1 3 3.67 12 1.37 1 2.68
2 Michigan 11 3 3 4.42 5 1.97 7 2.24
3 North Dakota 12 2 4 5.06 2 2.28 13 2.22
4 Maine 6 4 4 3.32 23 1.53 2 2.17
5 Boston College 11 3 0 4.70 3 2.23 12 2.11
6 Providence 8 3 3 4.12 7 2.11 10 1.95
7 Minnesota 9 5 2 4.48 4 2.30 15 1.95
8 St. Cloud 10 3 1 3.43 19 1.78 3 1.93
9 New Hampshire 10 3 3 3.40 21 1.84 4 1.84
10 Ohio State 9 4 1 3.70 10 2.02 9 1.84
11 Colorado College 10 3 1 3.39 22 1.98 8 1.71
12 Alaska-Anchorage 5 6 1 3.06 28 1.97 6 1.56
(of 60 teams)
For a sample of CHODR predictions, here are those for HEA this week:
Wednesday, December 6:
Boston College 4.43 at Northeastern 2.98
(the teams played to a 0-0 tie last night .. wts)
Friday, December 8:
Maine 3.07 at Boston University 1.80
UMass-Amherst 1.90 at Providence 5.39
Sunday, December 10:
Boston College 2.32 at Maine 2.72
... and the rankings for women's ....
Based on games played through 12/04/00
Division I Offense Defense Overall
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Rating Rank Rating
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Harvard 8 3 0 4.65 2 1.51 2 3.07
2 Dartmouth 8 0 1 4.62 3 1.70 5 2.72
3 Minnesota 11 2 1 4.15 5 1.58 3 2.63
4 Minnesota-Duluth 11 3 0 5.10 1 1.94 10 2.63
5 Wisconsin 11 3 2 4.24 4 1.99 11 2.13
6 New Hampshire 9 4 0 3.58 7 1.68 4 2.12
7 Brown 5 3 1 3.67 6 1.74 7 2.11
8 St. Lawrence 7 3 2 3.12 10 1.49 1 2.09
9 Northeastern 8 3 0 3.30 9 1.88 9 1.76
10 Providence 8 2 1 2.41 12 1.73 6 1.40
11 Niagara 7 7 0 2.27 14 1.84 8 1.24
12 Mercyhurst 5 7 2 2.25 15 2.17 12 1.04
13 St. Cloud 5 9 0 3.32 8 3.34 19 0.99
14 Maine 5 7 0 2.15 17 2.22 13 0.97
15 Cornell 3 6 1 2.91 11 3.04 16 0.96
(of 23 teams)
The predictions have Maine beating Wayne State 4.02-0.74 on today's
and Saturday's games. :-0
cheers, wayne
save
Wayne T. Smith
[log in to unmask] Old Town Landing
The College Hockey lists, Hockey-L and Hockey3 at http://lists.Maine.edu/
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