For completeness, here's my analysis of the at-large situation if RPI
goes 1-1 in the ECAC tournament:
 
If all the higher seeds win except in the RPI-Colgate semi and
possibly the WCHA playin and consolation game, and Niagara and
Quinnipiac are left out, at-large bids go to UNH, Maine, BC, Colgate,
NoDak, Michigan State and two others; for each possible result of the
WCHA consolation game:
 
SCSU defeats Mankato or Minnesota:
 
SCSU and Mankato win comparisons with everone except LSSU (in the case
of SCSU) and would thus get the last two at-large bids.
 
Mankato defeats SCSU:
 
Mankato gets one at-large bid for winning the comparisons with
everyone else; RPI is next in the PWR, but since only bubble
comparisons matter, the fact that SCSU loses to LSSU and Sacred Heart
and Minnesota to Cornell and SH is irrelevant.  In terms of individual
comparisons, RPI beats Minnesota beats SCSU beats RPI, so we go to
Ratings Percentage Index, and Rensselaer has the highest of the three.
 
Minnesota defeats SCSU:
 
Minnesota, Mankato and SCSU all defeat RPI in the individual
comparisons; when LSSU and SH comparisons are thrown out, we end up
once again having to look at the Ratings Percentage Index and find
Minnesota and SCSU in the tourney.
 
So it looks to me like RPI's only shot to make the NCAAs without
winning the ECACs is if Mankato beats St. Cloud, unless there's some
more subtle effect involving other tournaments.
 
Note that RPI also has to lose to SLU in the championship game for
this to work, or else Cornell or Clarkson would end up getting an
autobid and screwing things up.  However, winning the ECAC consolation
game would also work for RPI.  In fact, beating Clarkson in the
consolation would put RPI in a position to make the NCAAs even if
Niagara is included, since it would give them a 2-1 to 1-1 advantage
over Mankato vs common opponents, which would be enough to flip that
comparison.  (By my reckoning, RPI makes the tournament in the absence
of any upsets elsewhere, if they beat Clarkson in the consolation
and/or Mankato beats SCSU in the WCHA conso.  So RPI fans should root
for Clarkson and Mankato in the play-ins.)
 
                                          John Whelan, Cornell '91
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                                     http://www.amurgsval.org/joe/
 
Play along at home at http://www.slack.net/~whelan/cgi-bin/tbrw.cgi?brack
 
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