Ralph Baer wrote:
 
> It is always fun to see all of the what-ifs this time of the
> year.  One thing that I have not seen is who would have made the
> NCAA tourney this year if record in last 20 games was still being
> used as it was a year ago instead of the record in last 16 games
> as is now used.  Anyone who has a PWR program want to try this?
> I had the sickening thought that if this was the case then RPI
> would have made the tourney because games 17 through 20 were
> all wins.
 
Maybe.  But maybe not.  I don't have any sort of program to run this on,
but I did a quick eyeball.  RPI would not catch Northern Michigan, who
went 3-0-1; this difference means that RPI ties them in this category, but
NMU still wipes out the Engineers 3-0 in the comparison.
 
However, this is enough to cause RPI to win the individual comparison with
Ohio State, meaning that they might have made the field instead of the
Buckeyes, depending on what happens with other comparisons and exactly how
the committee makes its decisions.
 
You know that there's a but coming, right?  Notre Dame also went 4-0 in
games 17-20.  This does not cause them to pull ahead of OSU.  They do
however, win the comparison with RPI, regardless of how many games you
count at the end of the season.  So what RPI accomplishes by beating OSU
is to create a three-way tie.  Notre Dame has the best Ratings Percentage
Index of the three.
 
So, RPI having a better Last 20 record than Last 16 record might very well
have cost Ohio State a bid, but I suspect that it wouldn't have helped
them.
 
J. Michael Neal
 
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