Bob Stagat's post was rather interesting. Enough so that I slid over to
Ken Butler's page to have a quick look at his description of KRACH. I found
the following passage there by Ken to be particularly compelling:
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        The above also suggests that, with few games in the database, fairly small
changes in the data can have large effects on the rating. As a result,
early in the season, the ratings are "jumpy", with teams moving apparently
erratically up or down the ranking. But, as the season progresses, each
weekend's games are a proportionally smaller addition to the database, so
that the ratings do settle down.
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        Two points: the "jumpy" phenomenon described above is completely analogous
to what happens with an insular schedule such as the MAAC's. The paucity of
connecting data make this method, like the others, inapplicable to judging
the MAAC teams against the establishment. Thus I do not think it can be
used with any more reliability or credibility than any of the others unless
these "erratic" effects are thoroughly studied.   The second point is that
I recall Ken sending out an early ranking a few years ago which he may have
modified to take out or smooth these effects. (I will go into the archives
to research this point when I get a chance.) That may have been where I
remember the initial weighting factors from. Believe me, I may have
recollected inaccurately, but I wasn't making that up.
 
        A final question about KRACH: since the mathematics are not given, and
since we know (only because Ken tells us as it is not on the top of our
heads) that the problem is non-linear, do we know that the solution is
single valued? Or is it possible that the error residual has multiple local
minima which can be converged upon? And if we know that there is only a
single solution, then how do we know that? From first principles, or from
experience only? These are questions that all need to be answered before
any official weight is given to another system in something as important as
NCAA bids. The "erratic" effects to me are the most troubling.
 
        Lastly, no apology necessary, Bob. We all feel passionately about this
subject. In fact I've been there myself once or twice. Done that too. Even
gotten the tee shirt:-):-)
 
        -- Dick Tuthill
 
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