Jay Lau asks
 
>How much of the selection process is subjective?
 
        Much less than in most sports, but a little bit.  Under some
unusual circumstances, who makes it may depend on how they define "the
bubble", but if there are X at-large bids to give out and X teams win
"pairwise comparisons" (see
http://www.uscollegehockey.com/news/01/26_pwr.html) with all of the
other teams in the running for those at-large bids, those X teams will
be in.  Period.  The real judgement calls come in deciding which teams
get sent to which regionals and how the 3-6 teams in each regional are
seeded.  There are numerical rules, but they can be overridden to
prevent intraconference games or for attendance purposes.
 
>For example, UNH fell out of the 10 ten USCHO poll but is ranked very high
>(definitely top 10) in the PWR and the RPI polls. How much does the fact that
>they lost 6 out of the last 7 affect their placement?
 
        One of the criteria factored into the pairwise comparisons is
record in the last 20 games, so recent performance matters there.
 
> Do they still make the
>tournment?
 
        Probably.  It depends what happens this weekend.
 
>And how about BU? Will the selection committee give BU a bye even though they
>lost to the 8th place team in the conference tournment?
 
        BU will probably get not only the bye, but the #1 seed in the
East.  (Cursory attempts to construct a scenario using
http://www.slack.net/~whelan/cgi-bin/tbrw.cgi?hypo which resulted in
BU losing a comparison to any Easter team were unsuccessful.)  As far
as the committee is concerned, those two losses against Merrimack are
just two losses, and don't gain any extra significance because they
were playoff games.
 
>What about BC? Ranked third in the country now, if they win the tournment, how
>will the selection committee look at this?
 
        They will not look at the polls; BC does quite well in the
pairwise comparisons; at the moment they lose to BU and Clarkson, but
the BU-Clarkson comparison could flip depending on how the two teams
do this weekend.  If BC wins the Hockey East tournament, they will be
guaranteed a tournament bid (which they would probably get anyway),
but it won't help their seeding.  On the other hand, if *Yale* wins
the ECACs, they will get an automatic bye (and the #2 East seed) by
virtue of holding both the tournament and regular season titles in
their conference.
 
>How about things like strength of schdule? No disrespect to the ECAC but their
>conference (from top to bottom) is not as strong as other conferences. Yale
>and Clarkson beat up on quite a few of the weaker teams.
 
        The Ratings Percentage Index, which is the most significant
single factor (other than maybe head-to-head games) in determining the
pairwise comparisons, takes into account strength of schedule.
 
>Finally, how about things such as the national polls at the end of the season.
>How much of an impact, if any, do they have on the selection committee?
 
        None whatsoever.  The committee uses an objective formula
which was constructed to factor in many of the factors (strength of
schedule, common opponents, recent performance) which contribute to
pollsters' subjective judgement.  Other factors, such as margin of
victory and whether the games were in the playoffs, are not included.
 
                                         John Whelan, Cornell '91
                                               <[log in to unmask]>
                      <http://www.cc.utah.edu/~jtw16960/joe.html>
 
        Learn about the NCAA selection process on the web at
       http://www.slack.net/~whelan/cgi-bin/tbrw.cgi?pairwise
 
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