I was listening to Around the Rinks this week, and was quite interested
in the discussion of recruiting. Finally, something I have firsthand
knowledge of. :-)
 
First, I'll comment on a couple of things Jeff Sauer said:
 
He seemed to give the impression that Prop 102 [1] wouldn't have much
effect. I'm not so sure. If a player only has Coach Sauer calling, then he
may be right. But if he has Jeff Sauer calling, and Mark Mazzolini calling,
and Dean Blais calling, and Mark Morris calling, and Shawn Walsh calling, and
Stan Moore calling and Tim Whitehead calling etc. then I think it will
have an effect on some kids.
 
Coach Sauer may be assuming a level of informed-ness that is not always
there. All that this one call can realistically accomplish is to let a
player know about his options. The level of knowledge of the college
option will tend to vary from region to region.
 
I know of a couple of instances where the information apparently wasn't
there. Two goalies with the team I used to work for both played short
stints in Major Junior, and then came to play with us. Neither of them
were aware of the NCAA before they played in the QMJHL. The system in
Quebec gears itself mostly to sending kids to the QMJHL. (One of the
goalies ended up going to the States and is now, AFAIK, currently sitting
out his year of ineligibility. The other ended up leaving the Major Junior
team and is now in parts unknown.)
 
As well, an article appeared in the paper here about a player named Mark
Kosick. He leads Victoria's Jr. A team in scoring, and has already
committed to Michigan for next year. [Guess this means I'll actually have
to like Hail to the Victors.] His intention was to play Jr. A for a season,
and then go to the Western Hockey League. The article said he was unaware of
the college option. I doubt he's the exception in Victoria.
 
Coach Sauer also mentioned that pro scouts denigrate the college option.
Honestly, I can understand why a pro scout would rather see a prospect
play Major Junior. The play in the leagues will tend to be more like the
NHL (right down to the love of the [yawn] neutral-zone trap in the OHL),
and the schedule is as well. A Major Junior player will play from 66 to
nearly 100 games in a year. If I want to see if someone can play in the
NHL, I'd like to see him in as close to NHL conditions as possible.
 
Why are colleges losing more players? I think the answer lies in the
expansion of the Major Junior leagues, and particularly where that expansion
has been. The state of Major Junior ten-fifteen years ago was:
a) about 40 teams between the three leagues (14 WHL, 15 OHL, 11 QMJHL)
b) in the States, the WHL had a good team in Portland, OR, a bad team in
Seattle, teams folded in Great Falls, MT, and Spokane, and a team that
was about to move in Billings, MT. The QMJHL tried expanding to
Plattsburgh, NY, but they too folded.
c) in major Canadian centres, Major Junior was fleeing. All the cities with
NHL teams at the time lost their Major Junior teams between the late 70s
to the late 80s.
 
Now the state of Major Junior hockey is:
a) approximately 50 teams combined (18 WHL, 17 OHL, 14 QMJHL) with at least
four more coming soon.
b) in the U.S., the WHL now has decent teams in Portland and Seattle, and
stable teams in Spokane and Tri-Cities (WA). The OHL has had a team in
Detroit since the start of the decade, and now has a team in Erie, PA.
c) in major Canadian centres, Major Junior is coming back. Calgary and
Edmonton both received WHL expansion teams within the past year, and
Toronto is due to a team in downtown Toronto and a team in the suburbs
next season.
 
All of these factors have an effect on the recruiting battle.
 
a) There are now 200 more Major Junior spaces to fill than just ten years
ago. That will go up possibly to 280 next year, as the QMJHL will add at
least one team, and the OHL is going to add at least one next year, if
not up to three. The player pool in Canada hasn't gotten that much
bigger. In fact, for the OHL and WHL, it has gotten smaller. This forces
the teams to recruit harder, and to go farther afield...to the States.
 
b) The increased American presence gives these teams an advantage in
recruiting American presence. In the case of the OHL, the teams in
Michigan and Pennsylvania now mean that players in those areas are
automatically eligible for the OHL draft. This means OHL scouts will be
looking more closely at them. The teams themselves will have an easier
time recruiting Americans. I'm sure it is much easier to convince a
player to live in Spokane or Detroit than to get him to move to Moose Jaw
or Owen Sound.
 
c) The growth of teams in major cities also is a help in recruiting for
Major Junior teams in general, and the big-city clubs in particular. One
doesn't hear of an American blue-chipper going to Owen Sound or Swift
Current. I'm willing to bet that one can convince a player to come to
Toronto, Montreal or Calgary easier than Owen Sound, Rouyn-Noranda or
Moose Jaw.
 
With all this taken into account, I certainly don't think all hope is
lost for the colleges. They will have to work a bit harder for Americans,
but they are helped by the general American mindset that links athletics
to academics directly, the fact that the normal order of things is that
one plays high school hockey, and then proceeds to college hockey.
 
The Major Junior franchise growth has to level off, I think. Dilution of
the product is, or should start to be, a concern for the leagues. They're
also simply running out of places to which they can expand.
 
I think Prop 102 will help for the reason I stated earlier.
 
I think the colleges will also be helped by something that wasn't
mentioned in the ATR piece. It sounds rather odd to say it, but I think
the Graham James [2] scandal in Canada will at least in the short term,
have to play on the minds of parents of 15- and 16-year-old players. I
wonder how eager they will be to send their sons away to play hockey at
that age. By the time a player reaches normal college age, that concern
should not be as great. It's not the sort of thing that would ever be
publicly acknowledged, it's one of those back-of-the-mind things.
 
As for letting ex-Major Junior players play in the NCAA, I'm unsure. I
think a relaxation of the ban is necessary. At a minimum, I don't think
playing exhibition games in Major should toast eligibility. Perhaps
even a relaxation to the point where a player can play up to half a
season would be a good idea. What has to be avoided is the situation
where a player plays some games at 16, is cut, and finds that his options do
not include the NCAA. Asking a player to make The Decision when he's 16,
and in the middle of training camp (when optimism reigns supreme) is wrong.
 
What I'm unsure of is whether a total removal is a good idea. On
principle, I guess I have to support it, as I'll argue up and down that
the players in Major Junior are not really professionals. But I wonder
about the idea of colleges trying to recruit from teams that don't want
to be recruited.
 
I think I've exhausted all my thoughts on the subject. If you read this
far, I'm impressed. :-)
 
See you later,
John
 
[1] Prop 102 allows schools to call foreign-born high school sophomores
once per year. This allows coaches to talk to prospective players when
they are either 15- or 16-year-olds. This brings up a question, Ontario
has, for now, a Grade 13. Since the word "sophomore" is never used in
this context in Canada, what would the NC$$ consider to be the
"sophomore" year? Grade 10 or Grade 11? Everywhere else, I assume that
the sophomore year would be Grade 10, as it is in the States (right?).
[2] Graham James was recently convicted of sexual assualt against Sheldon
Kennedy and one other player. These assaults occured while James coached
the WHL's Swift Current Broncos.
 
 
John Edwards                       Minister of Chasing Wild Geese (DNRC)  O-
[log in to unmask]       http://www.islandnet.com/~jedwards (29/1)
               "He is SUCH a freak!" - Edie Edwards (Age 16)
    "Ah, love, the walks over soft grass, the smiles over candlelight,
          the arguments over everything else." - Max Headroom
 
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