As scintillating as Jason's analysis is, I tend to point to a more basic
cause for the ECAC's "superiority" over HE this year: simple cyclical
variation.  HE has had a run in attracting the top talent for the past
five years, now it's the ECAC's turn.  In fact, this isn't as jingoistic
as it sounds.  In the early years of HE, the ECAC enjoyed a significant
advantage over HE.  Granted, they didn't play that often, but ECAC teams
generally came out on top.  HE seems to have made its rise when two of its
teams, BU and Maine, became perennial powerhouses.  Both have fallen back
a bit--BU because of graduation and NHL losses, Maine because...you know
why.
 
It's interesting to speculate that the success of the BU and Maine
programs also helped to pull in recruits to other HE teams.  Some of the
second level teams, to use Jason's terminology, do seem to have fallen
back this year.  Lowell lost Bruce Crowder, but that shouldn't immediately
equate to a recruiting loss.  Providence should be reaping the dividends
of a young and skilled coach, Paul Pooley, and their upsetting success of
the past two seasons.  BC was a mess, and maybe Jerry York isn't enough
to achieve an immediate turn-around.  UMass for me is surprising how much
they have fallen from last year's improving squad.
 
But the ECAC's traditional second level has made a significant
turn-around--witness Princeton and Dartmouth.  The ECAC at least seems to
be attracting similarly skilled players as HE.  Again parity maybe be
playing a part as the really superior players that HE signed back in the
early 90's, like the Kariyas and the Griers, just aren't there anymore.
The real studs are now going the Junior A route.  As a result the elite
programs grab the skilled players who formerly would populate the Lowells
and Providences.  The ECAC in turn finds its fortunes improved since it
can compete against the Lowell and Providences, it just can't against the
Maine's and BU's.  It's an easier sell for the ECAC to get the smaller,
less-NHL-type players.  HE probably still has the ability to get the real
blue chips, for example Marty Reasoner picking BC over SLU.  But when
there are fewer of them around, the ECAC can raise its competiveness.
 
This is all a little roundabout way of saying that the ECAC is now
enjoying the normal competitive cycle.  The mighty may have fallen, albeit
not that much.  But before we all engage in chest thumping about our
alleged superiority, I would suggest that most of this is explained by
the normal variation in recruiting.  ECAC may ride the wave for the next
few years, but undoubtedly the tide will again change.
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Brian Morris                    RPI Engineers--Big and Nasty
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