At 04:50 PM 11/28/95 -0500, Kenneth Baker wrote:
 
>It seems that if you beat someone, you are rewarded as much for the win
>being the winner as you are penaltized for losing.  The real irony is
>that LSSU is not a Top 10 team right now but in the top 10 in HEAL and
>Michigan is not a Top 10 team in HEAL but in the Top 10 in the polls.
>
>If Wayne (or even Mike) could give a further explanation for this, it
>would be appreciated.
 
Wayne's the expert, but why don't I give it a whirl.  There is always debate
here in Maine about how the system works.  It's ironic you should question
it, because a guy in Winslow here is doing the same thing, but he has been
left out of the playoffs the last two years.  Anyhow.. I digress..
 
The thing one has to remember when looking at a rating is that it's only a
guide, because the season isn't even half over.  One could question how
"valid" the HEAL results are.. but it's only as good as the schedules the
teams have played so far.
 
In the case of the CCHA, Western Michigan has a victory over Michigan who
was a HEAL Top Ten team when they beat them, but has also beat Providence,
LSSU and Bowling Green all current top ten HEAL teams.  You beat four
quality teams like that, and the HEAL rewards you.
 
Wayne can correct me if I'm wrong, but HEAL rewards wins, but what it really
only amounts to an "average value" of a win.  If you play a lot of lower
competetion (Colorado College is 9-0-3, but is in 9th in the rankings) your
average win value is lower, thus the lower rating.  When you lose, it's a
loss no matter who it's against.  A loss to BU and a loss to Dartmouth is
still the same.  A tie is half a win (20 pts rather than 40).  So if you
beat a good team, the "average value" of a win increases dramatically,
especially this early in the year because there are less games to base the
ratings on.  Thus the vaults this week of Minnesota, Maine and Brown (who
beat Providence).
 
So I would say that it wasn't so much that Michigan dropped out of the top
ten by virtue of their loss to Minnesota, but by other teams beating quality
teams, like Maine's win over Vermont vaulting them to #5.  You can still
drop by losing games, but HEAL doesn't discriminate between losses.
 
Does this help at all??
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